Comment: Foe or friend? Mamata Banerjee blows hot and cold

For one who may have acted impulsively in earlier days, West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee is today only blowing hot and cold over yet another hike in petrol prices.

The Trinamool Congress chief used unusually harsh language against the Congress-led central government decision but hinted that she was not ready to rock the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) boat.

In the past, 'Didi' would have simply walked out of the government - as she did in 2001 when she was with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) that governed New Delhi - or done something equally dramatic.

This time, she said she would not take any action before meeting Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, who returned on Saturday after attending the G20 in Cannes.

But if she thought the Congress or Manmohan Singh would bend, she may be in for a surprise.

Banerjee, analysts say, may be hoping to achieve multiple objectives without resorting to extreme actions.

“She has a mass leader image. People are reeling under escalating prices. Petrol prices have risen 11 times in 12 months. So, being a UPA partner, she couldn’t have escaped criticism,” said political analyst Samir Kumar Das.

“The main issue here is rising prices of essentials. The petrol (price) hike is only the trigger,” Das told IANS.

At the same time, Banerjee has hinted she does not want the government to fall.

“Otherwise there will be fresh elections, imposing a financial burden of Rs5,000 crore. And the BJP can gain ground. So she is buying time,” added Das, a political science professor of Calcutta University.

Sabyasachi Basu Ray Chaudhury, political science professor at Rabindra Bharati University, concurred.

“The pressure tactics may work in Banerjee’s favour. The Congress is edgy after Anna Hazare’s fast. With assembly elections in several states round the corner, there could be a rollback."

And by her high-voltage protest, Banerjee has tried to preempt any political gain which her rival Left Front could be eyeing.

A byelection is due in the South Kolkata Lok Sabha constituency this month, necessitated by her resignation.

Though Trinamool candidate Subrata Buxi looks favourite to win from her pocket borough, the margin would be keenly watched. Banerjee had won by a massive 2.19 lakh votes in 2009.

“Left politics revolve around issues like price rise. So she wants to see that the Left does not gain from protests that could dent the Trinamool margin in Kolkata South,” said Ray Chaudhury.

Since taking power in West Bengal in May, Banerjee has repeatedly spoken about inheriting a “bankrupt” state with a huge loan burden. She has sought a financial package from the central government.

In August, she got a Rs21,614 crore package including a Rs9,240 crore grant-in-aid, but the amount left Banerjee unhappy.

Even the grant-in-aid has been held up due to red tape while the financial assistance of Rs200 crore promised for Darjeeling’s Gorkhaland Territorial Administration this year is still awaited.

The chief minister, loathe to impose fresh taxes and raise power and transport tariff, has to take a call soon on paying pending DA to government employees.

“She is actually putting pressure for another bailout package. Having hardened her stand on Maoists, the chief minister might also require more central forces to combat them,” said Ray Chaudhury.