India may go the Europe way

Harold Wilson, the most successful Labour leader of all times (he won four elections while even Tony Blair only won three) said, “A week is a long time in politics”. Indian politics illustrates this very well today. Until the Budget, the UPA looked in trouble and NDA was riding high. After the Budget, the tables have turned. The BJP has lost its nerve and feels cheated out of what it thought was its certain victory in the coming elections. That is the only explanation I can think of for the remarkable thuggish behaviour of its Delhi MLAs and corporators in attacking the CPM headquarters. 

The BJP is supposed to be a responsible party and the only national alternative to the Congress. If it is to abandon all decency and become a street-fighting machine, the future of Indian democracy is bleak indeed. It is one thing for the  ABVP or Raj Thackeray to incite a mob to attack all and sundry but not for the BJP. It is up to LK Advani as the prime-minister-in-waiting to denounce such behaviour. If he hesitates, we all need to worry.
 
An election is imminent. The best proof of this is that Congress spokespersons are denying this. As Bismarck once said, “Nothing is true until it is officially denied.” The scenario is clear. Congress/UPA will reaffirm its desire to sign the US deal and CPM/Left front will withdraw its support. Yet there will be no successful No-Confidence motion while BJP and CPM are exchanging fisticuffs in the streets. So a minority government can continue and sign the Treaty while Opposition parties can fume. The loan waiver will be extended to all and sundry — farmers, fishermen, weavers. The bill will be huge but it is really a transfer from the Government to its own banks while a poor man’s debt is expunged. This does not add any purchasing power for the poor; it just saves them from worrying about the debt burden. They can start borrowing again. Government debt will balloon but since an election is imminent, fiscal responsibility takes a backseat.

Of course it not at all certain that the UPA will come back in its present form. Congress will be tempted given its delusions of grandeur from years past to contest on its own and wait to make up a coalition later. NDA looks like staying put in its present form. Once the election results are in, the crucial question will be: which is the largest single party — Congress or BJP. The President has some freedom in inviting which party to form the next government since no single party will have a majority. In 1989, Rajiv Gandhi was invited as the leader of the largest single party but declined to form a government as Congress then did not believe in coalitions. 

This is where the historic importance of the Presidential Election of 2007 comes in.  President Pratibha Patil will have the choice of who to call. If Congress has more Lok Sabha seats than BJP, the answer is clear and easy. But what if the NDA coalition has more seats than Congress and the Congress has not made a pre-election coalition? Or what if BJP is the larger party? At that stage the coalitions come into play. Congress may stitch together a coalition which may have more seats than NDA although BJP has more seats than Congress. 

Thus there will be some confusion and delay, and accusations of partisanship levelled against the President unless such issues are aired beforehand. The precedents are not set. Indian democracy is evolving towards a European continental pattern. Belgium has had an election months ago but no government has been formed because the French-speaking and Flemish-speaking groups have been at each others’ throats for decades and now it seems the crunch has come. The previous government continues with parties of both groups together but a new government cannot be formed. Italy is another case where the President has had to dissolve Parliament and work out a compromise which will avoid another election. I expect and predict that the next election will see such a crisis in Indian politics.
 
As the European examples show, there need not be chaos. The previous government can continue in office till a new one is formed. This could take months. No doubt the Third Force will try and put its hat in the ring and Mayawati will bargain with all and any comers. The eventual coalition will need to prove its majority in Lok Sabha. No doubt many crores change hands as MPs buy and sell votes. Where will this money come from? From corporate India, one way or another.  After all, Lok Sabha pioneered commerce in MPs. Now the money will be even larger than before. There is no need to deny this and indulge in hypocrisy as well as dishonesty.

The main issue is that whoever is asked to form government should be and should be seen to be legitimate. Whether this is so or not will depend primarily upon President Patil conducting herself openly and fairly. But more than that, it will depend upon the political parties behaving in a decorous fashion within themselves and towards each other. This is where the BJP attacks on CPM worry me. The sooner they are disowned and stopped the better for India’s democracy.

The writer is an economist.