Why Rahul Gandhi failed, Akhilesh Yadav didn’t

The biggest question thrown up by assembly election results is why Akhilesh Yadav clicked in Uttar Pradesh, taking his party to an unprecedented victory on its own, and Rahul Gandhi did not.

Rahul Gandhi, like Akhilesh, led his party’s campaign from the front, and did so in adverse circumstances, with the organisation almost defunct and out of power in UP for the last 22 years. Like Akhilesh, he worked equally hard, addressing over 200 meetings, and with sincerity. And yet it was the Samajwadi Party that emerged as the flavour of the season and not the Congress.

For a start, Rahul did not represent the local face that people were obviously looking for, and things might have been different had he been projected as the chief ministerial candidate of his party.

On the other hand, Akhilesh, armed with the boy-next-door charm, had drawn large crowds, made up largely of enthusiastic young people, who rushed to hear ‘bhaiyya’, ever since he started his cycle and rath yatras in September 2011. Akhilesh the orator hardly sets the house on fire, but it was his easy accessibility, and the way he reached out to people and mingled with them that endeared him to the youth, who tipped the scales in the SP’s favour.

Akhilesh also gave a new look to the SP — combining its old ‘socialist’ rhetoric of promising freebies like free ‘unemployment dole’ and free power with modern idioms like the use of new media and promise of laptops and tablets, which went down well with the youth. Obviously, a large chunk of the 1.49 crore new voters in UP rooted for the SP.

The turning point in the election for the SP came when Akhilesh took a stand to keep out DP Yadav, despite the backing the ‘don’ had of senior SP leaders like Azam Khan and Mohan Singh, thereby signalling a break from the past for the party which had been booted out in 2007 for its ‘goondagardi’. This proved to be reassuring for communities other than the Muslims and Yadavs, particularly the upper castes who had not forgotten the excesses of Mulayam Singh’s last regime. Had the announcement been made by Mulayam Singh Yadav, as the national president of the SP, it may not have had the impact it did. Above all, people saw the SP as best placed to replace Mayawati, and they wanted a clear verdict.

Unlike the SP, which had 25% of the vote share in 2007, the Congress could not boast of any one community in its kitty to begin with. The party made a mistake in not forging the social coalition that had stood Indira Gandhi in good stead — of Brahmins, Muslims and Dalits, and in addition it could have also wooed some OBCs and MBCs this time. This was the same rainbow that brought Mayawati to power in 2007.

The Brahmins would have provided the base vote in the Congress kitty, attracting Muslims to their side in what could have been perceived as a winning combination. They had looked at the Congress favourably in the 2009 general elections and might have gravitated to the party had it given them more tickets and sent them suitable signals. Instead, the Congress strategy chose to focus more on wooing the OBCs, Jats, and the MBCs, who have not been traditional Congress voters, and it will take much longer to bring them to its side.

Rahul Gandhi could also have done without some loose cannons, who with their statements about Batla House, President’s rule (and this may have created an even greater surge for the SP in the last two phases with a large concentration of Muslims) or 9% reservation for the Muslims, which created a reaction amongst Hindus and helped the BJP in many seats.

Though the SP has attained a clear majority, thanks to Akhilesh’s efforts, the party is rooting for Mulayam Singh Yadav as chief minister. It may gently want to ease Akhilesh into this role, rather than rock the boat so soon after such an impressive victory, given that senior party leaders like his uncle Shivpal Yadav and Azam Khan are opposed to him. But the way he was received during the campaign has already catapulted him into the position of a natural successor to Mulayam Singh Yadav. It is only a matter of time before Akhilesh Yadav takes over, and the party will have to bring him to the fore sooner rather than later, for he, rather than Mulayam Singh Yadav, will be better placed to take on Rahul Gandhi in 2014.

As for Rahul Gandhi — and here he should get full marks for taking responsibility for the defeat — he will live to fight another day, and continue with his mission to revive the Congress party and take it to victory ‘one day.’

That the SP marched ahead to a clear majority, breaking all previous records and expectations — its highest ever tally before this was 143 seats — showed that it had the support of communities other than its traditional ‘M-Y’ vote bank.

Clearly, there was an undercurrent against the Mayawati government and the SP was seen as best placed to provide the alternative to the BSP rule. It was ironic that despite Rahul Gandhi’s rhetoric against Mayawati, which set the tone for the poll campaign, it was the SP, which focussed more on the freebies, which reaped the harvest.

Again, though it was the Congress that first announced 4.5% reservation for backward Muslims, promising another 4.5 % later, the Muslims clearly plumped for the Samajwadi party, without which its figure would not have been as impressive.

The BJP also benefitted in many urban seats from a Hindu-Muslim polarisation, with the Congress leaders repeatedly harping on quota for Muslims, and statements like ‘Sonia Gandhi having tears in her eyes on seeing Batla house pictures’, as it needlessly created a reaction among the upper castes, raking up an old issue. As a BJP wag put it, the Congress did for BJP what Narendra Modi might have done had he campaigned in UP.