Column

There seems to be many a slip between the claims of the Congress brass about a “revival” in Uttar Pradesh and the reality on the ground. Cutting into the claims is the continuing disaffection of the electorate that is still not looking at the Congress as a viable option in the state, and the complete absence of an organisation capable of mopping up the votes even where these exist.

The Muslims reaction to the Congress ranges from a categorical “ where is the Congress party here” to a “Rahul Gandhi seems sincere but let us see what happens on the last days”. In an election where parties are holding on to their basic vote banks — the BSP to the Dalit vote, the Samajwadi party to the Yadav vote, and the Rashtriya Lok Dal to the Jat vote — the Congress is working to consolidate the Muslim, Brahmin and to some extent the OBC vote. The success has been very limited with the upper castes looking at the candidate, and the Muslims seeming more inclined towards “Netaji” (Mulayam Singh) than the Congress.

The Congress seems to be in the fight only where its candidate is strong, and has a personal rapport with the electorate. For instance in Rampur, the son of former Congress MP Noor Bano and the “Nawab” of Rampur Kasim Ali Khan aka Navaid Mian is in the contest. He switched to the Congress just a few days ago, having the trajectory of winning the seat on a SP and joining the BSP after it came to power. His supporters insist he has their “personal support” for him and not the party.

Similarly in Bareilly, Mayor Supriya Aaron who is the wife of the sitting MP is contesting the election from the Cantonment seat and hopes to win because of the “goodwill” for her and her husband. People admit the vote is for the mayor at a personal level, and not for the Congress.

It is interesting to note that in most such constituencies the workers as well as many of the voters spoken to kept drawing a distinction between the candidate and the Congress party. They, almost without exception, took care to point out that even if their candidate crossed parties the vote would move with them. The absence of an organisation was decried by all, with the stronger candidates in UP pointing out that they had set up their own apparatus for the elections that was in a sense independent of direct political affiliations. Most candidates confident of giving a
good fight were not asking the Delhi leadership to campaign for them maintaining that the presence or absence of the top leaders would not make a difference to their votes at this stage.

There is no wave for Rahul Gandhi at all. He is recognised in parts as “good person” but as Mohammad Ahmad said in Moradabad, “The Congress has a long way to go before it can hope to revive in UP.” In fact, in Moradabad the Muslims are absolutely certain that they will not vote for the Congress again, pointing to the dismal performance of former MP and cricketer Mohammad Azharuddin who had won on a Congress ticket from this seat. “Only to disappear” the Muslims gathered at a dhaba said, adding that they there “is no Congress here any more”. In Meerut the story was on similar line with the Jats saying they would vote for Ajit Singh, but the Muslims unwilling to make any such commitment for Congress candidates.

In Eastern UP, the Congress is certainly not making a dent in the vote bank. In Western and Central UP it is present only in pockets. In constituencies like Badaun where there is visible interest in the Congress, there is reluctance also to accept the party in these elections.

Near the Jama Masjid the Muslims get into heated debate, with the majority preferring the SP and describing the local Congress candidate as a “vote cutter”. Citing the case of their former Congress MP Saleem Sherwani they point out that the party and its MP had done nothing for the constituency, and left the Muslims in particular to their own dismal fortunes.

Rahul had visited the constituency recently and one gentleman waxed eloquent about how he had attended the meeting and told the Congress leader “face to face” all that was wrong with the party in the area. So how did you find him? “He seems sincere,” was the instant response. So you will be voting for the Congress? “Oh no, I will vote for the SP,” he replied. And this was the story all along, a stirring of interest because of the media coverage of Rahul’s campaign in the Congress in pockets, but a reluctance to cast the vote for the party that is not seen as a winning force in the state.

Price rise, Batla House encounter, Babri Masjid and corruption weighs heavily against the Congress with the voter. The candidates admit that while Rahul’s meetings are well attended there is no organisation to assimilate the votes after he leaves. His right hand man Digvijay Singh has managed to alienate sections of the party by fielding candidates who are not supported locally.

There is thus, no sign of the projected revival. It is a hard contest in pockets for the Congress with the party invisible in many of the important seats in the state. Ally RLD is not expected to improve much on its tally of 10-15 seats, with Congress candidates giving their own party 30-40 seats at this point in time. As one of them said, “We don’t see the picture that the media has been portraying unless of course there is a miracle in the offing.”