Column

The first impression while touring Uttar Pradesh is that the vote seems to be running away from chief minister Mayawati and her Bahujan Samaj Party. This is tempered by the second impression that her basic votebank is not just intact but seems to have further consolidated around her and the party.

Mayawati is definitely facing the flak for corruption and non-governance from the upper castes and the Muslims who are vocal in their criticism. The ‘social engineering’ that had paid her dividends in the last assembly elections taking her tally to an unprecedented 206 seats, has collapsed. In direct recognition of the fact, the chief minister has increased the number of Muslim candidates to 85, about 15 more than the number fielded by her in the last polls, and given tickets to 117 upper castes and 113 candidates from the Other Backward Castes.
In every city and town of UP, the Brahmins make it clear they are not interested in the BSP any more.

They are not sure where they will vote, but admit that there will be a clear cut division between the BJP and the Congress, with some votes going to specific Brahmin candidates fielded by the Samajwadi Party and in that order, the BSP. The vote is not consolidating at the moment behind any specific party.
Asked for the reasons, the consensus appeared to centre around one, the fact that the BJP in the state is in chaos and two, the Congress is not a particularly favoured party in the community as yet.

The Muslims are particularly vocal in decrying the BSP, and do not hesitate to give the reasons. One, Mayawati has done nothing for the community in her five years of power. Two, she insults and humiliates those who try and meet her in Lucknow. And, as Abdul Rashid said on the outskirts of Bulandshahr, “she ignores our petitions and has not fulfilled even one promise she made during the last elections”. The Muslims join the Brahmins in criticising the “levels of corruption”, with a rather articulate youth in Bareilly pointing out to the amusement of others standing around, “her one elephant statue probably costs more than what she has spent on us in five years.” Most spoken to were clear that “this time we are not going to vote for the BSP”. But she has fielded many Muslim candidates, we point out. So have the others, is the immediate retort. The chief minister is relying on these candidates to bring in the non-Dalit votes.

The anger against her is pouring out from the over populated corners of UP, with her erstwhile voters from the other communities particularly upset about corruption and non-governance at all levels. In Badaun a group of Muslims point out that no government has been worse than the BSP. “Not a single industry has come up, they ask us for bribes all the time for everything, which was not the case before, and there is no sign of governance, you can look around for yourself and see the roads and the poverty,” they said.

The OBC and Muslim candidates are giving a fight in some constituencies and although conventional wisdom still places the BSP in the fight for the top slot along with the Samajwadi Party, her vote will be dramatically reduced in these polls if the Muslims and Brahmins stay away.

The Dalit vote, on the other hand, has consolidated behind the BSP with only some sub castes looking at the other parties in the fray. The Jatavs for instance are totally behind her, and make it apparent that they are in no mood to criticise the BSP and “our leader.” In fact a group of them near Moradabad rattle off a list of BSP ‘achievements’ — from providing electricity and roads in Dalit hamlets to ensuring security — maintaining that the state government has protected and furthered their interests. The statues are not a controversy here, as many accept Mayawati’s claim that casteist forces are whipping up a campaign against her and her constituents.

Mayawati herself is locked in battle against all the other political parties attacking her and her government in UP. And while giving back as good as she gets, she has managed to assume the cloak of a ‘martyr’ in Dalit strongholds who look upon the attack on their ‘Behenji” as another manifestation of upper caste arrogance.

The absence of a Dalit leader in any other party in UP has also strengthened the support for her in this votebank, with the reluctance to criticise her on any issue very evident. Given the base vote, Mayawati is hoping to benefit from any other vote her candidates are able to bring to the kitty. And if this happens all across UP, she will be back in the running, bruised perhaps but alive and kicking. For now, however, the Samajwadi party has the edge.