Pakistan in a state of flux

Prolonged shadow boxing continues and strife between important institutions of state, which was brought into the open by the ‘Memogate’ affair is proving more difficult to resolve than earlier assessed. The Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) government has been forced into a corner under a concerted, twin-pronged attack from the army/ISI on the one hand and the supreme court on the other.

Both Pakistani army chief Ashfaq Kayani and chief justice Iftikhar Chaudhary harbour intense dislike for president Asif Ali Zardari and increasingly find his position as supreme commander of the defence forces and president unpalatable. The higher judiciary has been making noises about not letting anyone disrupt the democratic process. Though aggressive enough against the PPP, the court does not want to be seen as soft on the army either.

Yet, a crucial, larger seven-judge bench has been quickly constituted and it may pronounce a verdict on January 16 on the six options enumerated by a five-member supreme court order of January 10, which could disqualify Pakistani PM Yousuf Raza Gilani as MNA and hold the president liable for violating the Constitution and openly disregarding the two-year-old verdict disbanding the National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO), not reviving the Swiss court corruption cases, immunity to the president under Article 248 of the 1973 Constitution notwithstanding.

Opposition politicians have been observing these developments rather gleefully. An impatient Nawaz Sharif was quick to file a petition for inquiry of the Memogate  by the supreme court. He would prefer early elections so that a politically resurgent Imran Khan does not get enough time to consolidate his position or eat into PML (N) votes in Punjab. Imran himself seems confident of establishment backing and growing popular support to strike a strident and critical note against Zardari.

Civil society in Pakistan and the common masses, seem fed up and thoroughly disillusioned by the malgovernance of this civilian regime. They are plagued by the chronic power and gas shortages, industrial labour lay-offs in consequence, and escalating increases in prices of essential commodities. Yet they may not readily endorse a military takeover this time as there has been considerable criticism of army mismanagement after the Osama bin Laden episode and Mehran base attack by terrorists, as also due to attempts to curb or threaten a reasonably free media.

This was witnessed in the aftermath of the Saleem Shehzad killing and, more recently, when journalists of the standing of Najam Sethi and Hamid Mir complained. This has sullied the image of the army/ISI’s infallibility.

There is a view in Pakistan that historically speaking, the army may be repeating old mistakes by undermining democracy domestically while making local alliances with Islamic radicals, ignoring global suspicions of its complicity with or duplicitous conduct in respect of select non-state actors. The downslide in US-Pak relations is sterling proof of this. Stricter conditionalities of certification have been announced in US legislature for the budget appropriations for 2012 in the pipeline, which amount to a sizeable $2.965 bn for international affairs and $1.75 bn as coalition support funding from the Pentagon.

Any slowdown in disbursements could be disastrous not only for a cash-stricken civilian government already relying heavily on domestic bank borrowing but also for the army’s  modernisation programme and update of counter-insurgency capabilities. In this backdrop, fast moving developments of the last few days have understandably set rumour mills churning in Pakistan.

On Wednesday, media circles were agog with news of the dismissal of recently appointed defence secretary, Lt Gen (retd) Naseem Lodhi for violating rules of business while forwarding the replies of Kayani and DG, ISI Shuja Pasha directly to the supreme court without routing these through either the law ministry and/or the attorney general. A civilian bureaucrat seen to be close to the PM was brought in as acting defence secretary.

PM Gilani went public to a Chinese online paper about these irregularities even as the army chief was on an official visit to China. After Kayani hot-footed it back, the Inter Services public relations issued a stern press release warning the civilian government of ‘serious ramifications and grievous consequences for the country’ and re-iterating Kayani’s right to report the truth on Memogate  to the supreme court.

The PPP leadership appears to have made up its mind to go down fighting. The defence secretary’s sacking is a bold enough signal. The senate election schedule has been advanced to early March. If allowed to be held, these would enhance the PPP’s strength in the 100-member upper House to 48 from 27 at present. The National Assembly session convened on Thursday could express a vote of confidence in Gilani as PM before Monday to offset consequences of a possible disqualification verdict by the courts.

On governance issues alone, PPP politicians know their party may suffer badly from the anti-incumbency vote if elections are held early. One calculation could be to seek ‘martyrdom’ and a sympathy vote through such tactics - and martyrdom at the hands of the army would be preferable to succumbing before the courts!
What can be said for certain is that there may be a few more unexpected twists and turns before the final denouement.