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According to reports, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh wishes to renew relations with the Left. This came out in his meeting with five Kerala CPI(M) MPs and Sitaram Yechury. While the meeting related to Kerala, the PM said, while discussing the US downgrade and worldwide market meltdown, that he missed the Left’s counsel.

So are the CPI-M and Congress coming together again? Anything is possible in politics. But this patch up looks difficult till the Congress is in alliance with Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress in West Bengal and Prakash Karat holds the reins of the CPI(M). As general secretary, Karat looks strong despite the CPI(M)’s rout in Bengal, and he won’t truck with the Congress.

Contrary to the fashionable view, he is an elected general secretary. He doesn’t have the Bengal unit’s backing. But the party and its mass organisations in Kerala and elsewhere robustly support him against the pro-Congress Yechuri. After the Bengal debacle, Yechury tried to muscle in. But Karat prevailed.

Right or wrong, Karat believes the CPI(M)’s support to UPA-1 compromised its anti-imperialist ideology. The party stood exposed, embarrassed and helpless as Manmohan Singh negotiated the Indo-US nuclear deal. Realizing that the CPI(M) could never live it down, Karat withdrew support, leading to the a confidence vote, which UPA-1 won via underhand means.

The West Bengal unit never forgave Karat for this. It argued that an allied and neutralised Congress made Mamata weak. Given Mamata’s landslide victory, this argument looks bogus now. With or without the Congress, she would have won. The party lost because of its own policies. The opposite situation prevails in Kerala, the source of Karat’s strength. The CPI(M) and Congress are direct rivals there. Under VS Achuthanandan, the CPI(M) made a remarkable last-minute comeback, losing power but emerging as the single largest party. The ruling Congress alliance has a paper-thin majority. The Kerala unit is opposed to reviving ties with the Congress.

The Congress/UPA-2’s problem is that while it has the Lok Sabha numbers, it does not have legitimacy. The 2G, and other mega scams have destroyed its credibility. The CPI(M)’s strength is down from 44 MPs to 16. But it wields political influence far in excess of its parliamentary presence. Currently, the Left has an informal understanding with the BJP to resist UPA-2 on corruption, high inflation, and so forth. If the Left can be weaned away through the likes of Yechury, it could be easy-going for the Congress till the 2014 elections.

This would suit Yechury as well. An alliance with UPA-2 and all that power brings could help him upstage Karat and his wife, Brinda. Besides, he comes from the mould of powerbrokers like Harkishen Singh Surjeet, with loads of savvy and a first-class education to boot. But, ultimately, the CPI(M) is a conservative party. Its revisionism cost it power in Bengal, for which Yechury is partly blamed. So he may not have his way on a revived CPI(M)-Congress alliance.

Karat has visceral loathing for the Congress and its pro-Americanism. Then there is Mamata. She will dump the Congress in West Bengal if it considers aligning with the CPI(M).

If Pranab Mukherjee is the moving force behind the patch up, the finance minister should know that Mamata will bar him and his budding dynasty from Bengal.