Column

Why can’t Ashfaq Parvez Kayani just do it and be done with it? Why is he keeping the world in suspense? In the age of Roman imperium, coups and counter-coups were common. In the middle of a night, the reigning Caesar’s head would be chopped off. Next morning, the Roman population would discover that he had been replaced by an equally detestable figure.

Gradually the statues of the recently decapitated Caesar would have their marble heads chiselled off. A few days later the marble imitation of the new Caesar would be glued on those busts. It was a practical way of announcing that a new man had taken over as Roman CEO. It was economical too, because only a new head had to be cast; the base remained the same.

Had it been Pervez Musharraf, he would have already sent the tanks rolling in, there would be dramatic shots of soldiers climbing over the outer walls of the Pakistan Television headquarters for the midnight announcement that the army chief had decided that enough was enough and reluctantly stepped in to save the nation from itself. Musharraf would have acted in double-quick fashion because all his life he has acted first to repent later.

But Kayani is made of a different timber. Macbeth like, he is trapped in deep dilemma: should he, must he, need he? The outside world interprets it differently; copious commentaries are being written on why he is hesitating and how, as a defender of democracy, he doesn’t want a military solution to the current stand-off with the civilian government. Imran Khan conveniently parrots the same line. But let’s not get distracted by an abstraction; let’s stay the course.

Why is Kayani frozen in inaction? Almost three years ago, in March 2009, when Pakistan was in a similar crisis, this writer had argued; “Governing Pakistan is like riding a tiger. It is dangerous all the way through. While you ride there is the ever present danger of being thrown off, and the moment you fall the tiger is surely going to devour you. Therefore General Kayani has rightly decided to pass the ride.”

As then, now too, the argument remains the same. Once again Kayani is likely to pass the ride. Kayani is cautious by nature. He is not given to the dramatic flourishes of a middle-class Musharraf, a fanatic Zia, or a feudal Ayub Khan. There were other generals in between, but the larger point is that Kayani will hesitate before shouting, ‘Off with their heads.’

Rather mistakenly, his hesitation is being interpreted by some as a sign of weakness. A few others maintain that the army is not capable of staging a coup any longer, and that Pakistan is too difficult to govern. It is just possible that Kayani may prove all of them wrong, but for an entirely different reason.

Let’s also get another thing straight. It would be folly to underestimate the staying power of President Asif Ali Zardari. He is street smart and has outlived both Murtaza and Benazir Bhutto. He has also outmanoeuvred seasoned politicians like Nawaz Sharif. And he is ably assisted by Prime Minister Gilani who has shown himself to be both cunning and unflappable so far. In the slanging match over the last few days with the army, he has refused to be cowed down.

Still, the PPP government may have to climb down and compromise on some issues as a matter of expediency. It could, for instance, decide to replace Gilani with Aitzaz Ahsan. This could be a smart move because Ahsan had led the lawyers’ movement that resulted in the restoration of the present chief justice. With Ahsan at the helm, the judiciary may be mellower towards the civilian government.

However, even that is a side show. The principal reason why Kayani is not going in for a putsch is different. Kayani needs a civilian government in place to realise his bigger strategic agenda. He feels, and perhaps rightly, that the big prize of Afghanistan is within his reach. To achieve that, he does not want distractions of domestic governance to come in the army’s way. Moreover, he needs a civilian government for domestic and external interface. He realises that despite their disastrous performance otherwise, only politicians can reach out to people and engage them on issues of national importance.

Kayani’s actions so far demonstrate this intent; he co-opted the political leadership in a very public manner after the US raid that killed Osama bin Laden as also in the reaction to the death of 24 Pakistani soldiers in US airstrikes. The current domestic crisis is, therefore, an inconvenience rather than an opportunity in his scheme of things. While it would be folly to underestimate the wiles of Zardari and his cronies, it would be equally naive to misread the ambitions of Kayani or his determination to achieve his larger objective.

He may be a patient man, but don’t be deluded. Look carefully into his eyes. He has a steely gaze, and his eyes are unsmiling. He could strike at a time of his choosing, on his terms, with the ferocity that hides behind those cold eyes.

A former ambassador, the writer is a novelist and an artist