US turns away from Pak, China serenades Islamabad

United States President Donald Trump has taken calibrated efforts to reinvent the US engagement with the rest of the world. Undoubtedly, one major country towards which the Trump administration has indicated to make a major shift in policy is Pakistan. This can be gauged from the recent decision of the US to withhold $350 billion in military aid to Pakistan.

There has been growing rift between the US and Pakistan since the killing of bin Laden in 2011. Pakistan’s uncooperative behaviour in the fight against terrorism in Afghanistan became an important issue during the 2016 US Presidential election campaign, with both Hillary Clinton and Trump strongly criticising Pakistan for failing to contain terrorist activities emanating from its soil.

True, after coming to power, Trump initially thought to give Pakistan a chance to come clean on its support to terror outfits in Afghanistan and elsewhere in South Asia. It was precisely in this context that in his first telephone conversation with then Pakistan PM Nawaz Sharif, Trump called Pakistanis “one of the most intelligent, exceptional and fantastic people”. He also assured Sharif of his help in finding solution of outstanding problems.

Subsequently, in answering a question related to the Kashmir issue, the US Ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley, said that the US would try and “find its place” in efforts to deescalate Indo-Pak tensions and not wait till “something happens,” indicating that Trump could play a role in such endeavours. Haley’s statement emboldened Pakistan because Islamabad has always sought third party participation in resolving disputes with India.

However, US National Security Adviser HR McMaster was quick to emphasise the need for Pakistan to confront “terrorism in its all forms,” indicating the possibility of the Trump administration exercising the stick policy against Pakistan for its fraudulent record on counter-terrorism issues, especially since the Afghan Taliban, which controls half the territory in Afghanistan, has continued to enjoy strong bonhomie with Pakistan.

This became clear when speaking before the Congressional Committee on Afghanistan, General John Nicholson, the Commander of US forces in Afghanistan mentioned that 20 out of the 98 groups designated by the US as terrorist organisations operate in Afghanistan and Pakistan. The US was also disturbed by the fact that Pakistan asked China to block the UN Security Council from designating Hafiz Sayeed, a Pakistani terrorist, as a globally designated terrorist.

The devastating terrorist attack in Kabul on May 31, this year, in which 80 people were killed and 460 left wounded, exposed Pakistan’s claim of not providing terrorists safe haven on its territory, and its security and military agencies having no truck with the Haqqani network that is responsible for some terror assaults in Afghanistan. These developments, in turn, prompted the Trump administration to take enhanced punitive actions against Pakistan.

It decided to withhold the disbursement of $ 350 billion to Islamabad.

While the US is expected to deploy 4,000 additional troops in Afghanistan, the biggest challenge facing the Trump administration is how to bring about desired changes in Pakistan’s behaviour towards tackling terrorism, with one major constraint being the fact that more coercive actions by the US would only strengthen ties between Pakistan and China. The political instability which has emerged after the resignation of PM Sharif could further complicate Trump’s Pakistan policy.

The author is Senior Researcher at the UGC Centre for Southern Asia Studies, Pondicherry University