UP polls: Big surprise awaits Rahul & Co

Most ridiculous has been the talk of placing Uttar Pradesh under President’s Rule after the current elections produce a hung assembly. The Samajwadi Party, propelled by Akhilesh Yadav’s blitzkrieg barnstorming, has been generally expected to emerge the single-largest party, with the Congress getting just enough seats to help the SP form the next state government. No doubt Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has worked hard (even if some of his theatrics have been bizarre), with the media amplifying his efforts; and despite a lack of party cadre and other problems, his brain trust believes he will better the Congress’s tally of 22 seats in the outgoing assembly. Yet that’s not all: the brain trust, in a bit of strategic thinking, feels Rahul should play the long game and stay out of government now, sharpening his own and his party’s identity in UP so that the next elections — perhaps after a stint of President’s Rule — will yield a much larger crop, laying the foundation for a big dividend in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.

This would be all good and fine if it weren’t for two things. One, maybe the math is wrong; and two, maybe President’s Rule will cause short-term political problems that undermine the long-term gamble.

Firstly, the word from UP is that the BSP’s projected tally is going downwards, and is likely to dip below 100. (This is written before the exit polls, which may tell a different story.) If the BSP gets as few as 95 seats or so, then one would be inclined to think — though DNA has not conducted any surveys in UP — that the anti-incumbency vote would accrue to SP to such an extent that it may even find itself in a position to form a government on its own. The alternative consequence of the BSP dropping to approximately 95 seats is that the BJP does stunningly well, maybe even as high as 95 seats. This, though, seems unlikely given the low-key campaign by the party, its lack of a CM-candidate, and the absence of Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi; but you can’t rule a surprisingly strong showing out.

In either case, the Congress does not have the numbers in the assembly to force an outcome of their choice. If the SP gets a majority, then there’s no question of the Congress waiting a year and having another round of assembly elections. If the BJP’s tally is close to the BSP’s, then the Congress will get nowhere near the 50-70 it was projecting. It means the Rahul effort was futile, and the party will be too dejected to follow the roadmap to another round of assembly elections.

Let’s say, however, that the Congress does manage to notch up (along with its ally, the RLD) around 50 seats; and that the brain trust is emboldened to execute the President’s Rule plan. It, however, will be easier said than done. Who will support such a move? Certainly not the main opposition party, the BJP, which has already declared itself against such a move; certainly not the seven chief ministers who recently voiced their opposition to the National Counter-Terrorism Centre, thereby stalling its introduction; certainly not the SP, which would be livid about being denied its right to form the state government; and certainly not the BSP, which would be wary of allowing the Congress to take up a larger political space in UP. Among the UPA allies, the DMK would only support such a move if it were to get something in return, and knowing the brazenness of that party it would demand something as outrageous as President’s Rule in Tamil Nadu, something that not even the Congress would dare agree to.

If the government even tried to move in the direction of President’s Rule, such would be the outcry that Parliament’s main order of business, passing the union budget, would come under threat. Constitutionally, if the budget does not pass, the government has to resign, and the President then has to go through the motions of looking for an alternative government in this Parliament (though some leaders like Mamata Banerjee and J Jayalalithaa would not mind mid-term Lok Sabha elections, leaders like Sharad Pawar might attempt to cobble together an alternative government). Some of the smarter people in the UPA — like the fellow who runs the government and the fellow who has to present the budget — would likely anticipate this, and would undoubtedly counsel against something rash as central rule.

So what was the point of releasing this trial balloon of President’s Rule in UP? Who knows? Perhaps it is yet another piece of evidence of the kind of bubble-inhabiting group-think that plagues the ruling party. Perhaps the Congress party ought to actually bring Robert Vadra into politics in UP (it can’t hurt). The fact of how much the UPA is disconnected from the mood on the ground is going to be in evidence this week, and if the fellow who presents the budget is smart, he’ll have learnt a lesson or two.

The writer is the Editor-in-Chief, DNA, based in Mumbai