Underpinnings of PM’s US visit

Unlike his predecessors, Manmohan Singh and Atal Bihari Vajpayee, when Prime Minister Narendra Modi heads to Washington in a few days to pick up the threads of the bilateral ties with the United States with a new President, he will have to confront a challenge which neither of them had to surmount. Firstly, Donald Trump is even more of an outsider in the American establishment compared to what Modi was in 2014. Secondly, and perhaps more importantly, unlike transitions from Bill Clinton and George W Bush that Vajpayee successfully navigated and the Bush-Barack Obama changeover which Singh oversaw, the regime switch in Washington this time is more tectonic and sensational.

The task would not have been that tough for Modi had the Trump presidency settled into a languid pace after a tumultuous electoral campaign. After all, Modi weathered a none-too-smooth campaign before settling into his new role in which he built on old methods. But Trump has simply refused to work with the establishment and continues to allow his inner circle to pull in diverse directions. Modi’s problem will be enhanced by reports — more importantly by whispers — on the fallout of James Comey’s dramatic testimony and how these could shape the future of the Trump presidency.

When Modi sits down with Trump, he will be aware of the background din, but cannot allow this to factor into his formal agenda which the White House declared would include “advancing our common priorities, fighting terrorism, promoting economic growth and reforms, and expanding security cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region.” Yet, Modi cannot ignore the principal concern of his core constituency in the US — the Trump administration’s visa norms. External Affairs Minister, Sushma Swaraj, has indicated New Delhi’s intent by expressing concern at the rhetoric over H1B visas — “carefully following the developments,” is her way of flagging India’s concern. It is indicative that given half a chance, Modi would not miss reminding Trump of his declaration in October 2016: “If I am elected President, the Indian and Hindu community will have a true friend in the White House, that I can guarantee you.”

The test for Modi would be to ensure that the bilateral relationship does not follow the trajectory of the UPA’s second term. Despite Obama’s personal thank you note to Manmohan Singh, when his government was voted out and acknowledging the Indian Premier for his “critical role” in “defining and expanding the strategic partnership” between the two nations, Singh failed to sustain the intensity in Indo-US relations, visible during the Bush years. In contrast — and against expectations — Modi succeeded in establishing a robust relationship with the US under Obama.

The challenge, however, is to add more flesh to the engagement. Despite talk of a Modi-Trump bromance that followed their conversation over the phone after Trump’s inaugural, it will be in Modi’s interest to engage with the US even though the Trump administration gives mixed signals on maintaining the outward-looking vision, a hallmark of most presidencies. Because of Trump’s nonchalance towards global issues, and his stated position that America’s previous outward-looking posture is behind several of its woes, it will be more Modi’s brief to keep the US engaged with India. American business interests in India, including that of the Trump organisation, which has interests in some ongoing realty projects, will of course act as an enabler of Modi’s agenda. It is a consequence of this that despite India keeping its expectations low-key for the visit, a convergence of interests will come as no surprise. And, this will not be the only factor to ensure preservation of the bilateral gains in the era that began with Clinton’s defining visit to India in March 2000.

After having put “historical hesitations” behind it, India’s cause will be served if Modi and his accompanying team consciously look, figuratively, over the shoulders of Trump and his officials during moments of uncertainty in the course of the visit. Modi can ill-afford to be weighed down by the political divergence in Washington, and instead calibrate its stance on the assumption that the US establishment is habituated to looking at the world as a flock requiring tending. Modi’s cause will also be greatly served by a resurgent China and despite Trump de-scaling his stridency against Beijing’s economic expansionism, the US is sure to realise Xi Jinping’s desire to limit American power, even aided by Russia in this endeavour. On his 63rd foreign visit, Modi has the advantage of having no domestic political agenda after securing his place among global leaders. Frills that accompanied his previous visits are correctly being put behind and it is time for a staid exploration of the Trump presidency. And of course, being farsighted about long-term Indian interests.

The writer is a Delhi-based journalist and author