The future of Iran nuclear deal under Trump

Intensifying his administration’s efforts to grill Iran, the US President Donald Trump announced on October 13 that the US would not certify the nuclear agreement signed with Iran in 2015, stating that honoring the agreement would be to “continue down a path whose predictable conclusion is more violence, more terror and the very real threat of Iran’s nuclear breakthrough.”

Ever since the Iranian Revolution of 1979, the relationship between the US and Iran has been fragile. Iran’s hegemonic behaviour in the Middle East and its nuclear programme continued to be a major security challenge for the Obama administration as well. To tackle this, Obama’s office adopted a two-pronged strategy. While the US imposed fresh sanctions under the July 2010 Comprehensive Iran Sanctions and Divestment Act (CISADA), it also focused on using the persuasive power to restrain Iran’s nuclear ambitions. This consequently resulted in the signing of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) agreement between Iran and the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, Germany and EU, and the agreement was seen as a watershed development in creating the conducive atmosphere for at least a working relationship between Washington and Tehran.

While the lifting of international sanctions following the agreement significantly improved the Iranian economy, several American leaders questioned President Obama’s decision to sign such an agreement with Iran. During the Presidential campaign, Trump himself strongly criticised the JCPOA, threatening to abrogate the agreement, if elected. The possibility of the US reviewing this agreement increased further with President Trump signing an executive order in January, blocking the entry of people into the US from seven countries including Iran. Expressing his dismay at the JCPOA, Trump said in July that he is looking for the US to declare Iran to be out of compliance and to increase American pressure on the country.

These political statements were immediately followed by the imposition of a series of new sanctions against Iran. Addressing the UN General Assembly in September, Trump called the Iran nuclear deal “one of the worst and most one-sided transactions and an embarrassment.”

But, to presume that because of his personal dislike for the policies of the Obama administration Trump holds a critical view of the JCPOA would be misplaced. In fact, the Trump administration is concerned about the fact that despite the nuclear agreement of 2015, Iran’s nuclear programme has increased manyfold in the recent times.

The success of Trump’s strategy to deal with Iran, in fact, depends on the extent the US would be able to garner support from its European allies in view of their growing footprint in the Iranian economy, among other factors.

The author is a foreign policy analyst