Tackling Pak Taliban a challenge for Sharif

Surprising most pollsters in Pakistan, Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) has managed to pull off a near simple majority mandate which will enable it to form a government of its own quite easily in Islamabad, with support of only 10 independents or other smaller parties. It has also been able to register its presence, albeit small, in Sindh, Baluchistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP).

The Pakistan Tehrik e Insaf of Imran Khan also has reason to celebrate. Though it could not quite pull off its threatened `tsunami’ in Punjab, it has emerged as the second largest party at the national level. Imran Khan won three of the four seats he contested ‑- from Mianwali, Rawalpindi and Peshawar but lost narrowly against a strong PML (N) candidate in Lahore. With the maximum seats in the KP assembly, it could lead the provincial government there in a coalition with independents and smaller religious parties such as Jamaat e Islami ( JeI).

Expectedly enough, the People’s Party of Pakistan was badly defeated ‑- decimated in Punjab and retaining only its rural stronghold in Sindh. It will be able to form the provincial government there on its own but it would need to substantially spruce up its administrative performance if it hopes to bounce back into political reckoning in the future.

Results in Baluchistan have been delayed but it has seen a fractured mandate. The silver lining is that non-religious Pakhtun parties such as Paktunkhwa Milli Awami Party of Mehmood Khan Achakzai have done better than the Jamiat e Ulema (Fazlur Rehman) & JuI (Nazariyati). The Baluchistan Nationalist Party (BNP) of Akhtar Mengal participated in the polls in the face of threats from more militant nationalists and the PML(N) could win some seats in the provincial assembly.

This may enable Nawaz Sharif to hold out a peace beacon to the nationalists, after due consultation with the powerful military establishment.

On the domestic front, Nawaz Sharif’s pressing agenda would include effective tackling of the chronic power shortages and the deteriorating economy. Despite difficult odds facing the country, people are expectant as both Nawaz and his brother, Shahbaz, who will most likely become chief minister of Punjab again, have built reputations of being go-getters capable of delivering people-friendly facilities on the economic and development fronts.

One of the first priorities which will come up before the new Nawaz government will be how to deal with the terrorist threat posed by the Tehrik e Taliban. He will have to devise an approach in consensus with the Imran Khan-led provincial government in KP and the army. In the past, not all have spoken wih one voice.

Another ticklish issue will be the presidential election in September this year. Relations between President Asif Zardari and Nawaz Sharif have not been at all pleasant during the latter part of the PPP regime. Instead of peremptorily ousting  Zardari before his term ends like he did with Rafique Tarar replacing Farooq Leghari in 1997, he would be well advised to seek a non-Punjabi personality of stature to run for president, who would win easily from the designated electoral college of MNAs (members of National Assembly), MPAs (members of provincial assemblies) and Senators (members of upper house of Pakistan’s parliament) now available.

The resounding mandate from Punjab may tempt revival of authoritarian traits in Nawaz Sharif but political analysts in Pakistan talk of a new-found political maturity and tolerance to hear the other side’s viewpoint after his travails in Attock jail and the Jeddah exile. This may foster a more cautious approach in dealing with sensitive aspects of civil-military relations, including the working out of any new policy consensus on Afghanistan policy, relations with India or the nuclear programme, on all three of which the army would like to retain its veto power.

Nawaz Sharif has spoken about the need to revive relations with India from where he left off in 1999. Nawaz Sharif may be keen enough to allow trade relations to move apace, as this would appeal to his instincts as a businessman with sizable economic stakes of his Ittefaq Group -- in cement, sugar and other industries.

However, India should be patient and not expect him to move too fast, lest he ruffles too many feathers of hostile, pro- establishment forces, both within business groups or radical Islamic elements. The same could be said about promises to hold an enquiry into the Kargil episode or look into accusations of David Coleman Headley about collusion of ISI with Lashkar e Taiba in 26/11 Mumbai attack. Nawaz Sharif will have to find space and equilibrium to tackle domestic priorities first before he can extend any comfort to India on these issues.

The author is a former special secretary, R&AW and a noted expert on Pakistan.