SCO: A new frontier for India

India’s formal accession to the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) is unlikely to end the debate on how useful the membership would be for the country’s foreign policy and security goals. At the least, the SCO has stirred new impulses for India’s constructive — instead of confrontational — engagement with China.

This change in less than a month — between the One Belt One Road (OBOR) Forum held in Beijing in May and the SCO summit in Kazakhstan’s capital of Astana on June 8-9 — suggests that the state of play between India and China is changing. Indications are that New Delhi is ready to seize the opportunities flowing from its membership of SCO.

It may be early to perceive any change in India’s ‘China Policy’ but pronouncements in Astana were remarkably different from New Delhi’s utterances until last month, especially before, during and after the OBOR Forum. The shift noticed in Astana may be small but it is significant. More so as there were no references to India’s NSG membership, opposition to OBOR and issues which contribute to Sino-Indian tensions.

At his briefing on June 9 after the talks between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping, Foreign Secretary S Jaishankar said: “There was an understanding that where we have differences, it was important that differences should not become disputes, and in fact, if they were handled well, could even become opportunities.” Describing the Modi-Xi talks as “very cordial and positive”, he said that in the thinking of the two leaders, “where we have concerns, each side would look at it with a degree of seriousness.” (It may be recalled that the talks between them were not so upbeat and positive at the BRICS Summit in Goa last year).

Jaishankar struck an unexpected note on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). He said it need not be an obstacle for the two countries to work with each other and that both Xi and Modi were of the view that “where we have differences how do we work through those differences, find common ground where they are possible”.

Modi thanked Xi warmly for China’s support to India’s membership of SCO, and his speech at the Astana summit affirmed his faith in the “Shanghai Spirit”. This was a clear signal, if not an overture, to underscore that India would constructively partner China in the SCO, and not let its differences with China (or, for that matter, with Pakistan) stand in the way of moving forward together. Xi reciprocated Modi’s sentiments with matching warmth. So much so that anyone looking for signs of discord between Modi and Xi or in the subtext of what was said was disappointed.

Their words exemplified the Shanghai Spirit, which is about mutual trust, mutual benefit, equality, consultation, respect for cultural diversity, and the pursuit of common development. As Xi pointed out in his address, the mutual trust among SCO member-states is stronger, and solid progress has been made in SCO cooperation in all areas. All of which has contributed to regional stability and prosperity. A key principle of the SCO Charter is “to jointly counteract terrorism, separatism and extremism in all their manifestations”, which would make it difficult for China to unduly favour Pakistan or ignore the way it deals with these. SCO decisions being arrived at through consensus would enable India to negotiate outcomes which serve its interests in regional security and stability.

If, as Jaishankar said, the CPEC need not be an obstacle to India and China working with each other, then that is one hurdle less. The question that then arises is whether New Delhi would begin moving, gradually, towards aligning with OBOR.

On the eve of his departure to Astana, Modi had said: I look forward to deepening India’s association with SCO, which will help us in economics, connectivity and counter-terrorism cooperation. Read with Jaishanakar’s statement, this means that for SCO to boost connectivity and prosperity in South Asia, India may consider joining OBOR, which is the driving force behind SCO, even the expanded SCO. India is the only SCO member-country that is not backing OBOR. When this changes, the nature of India-China relationship may change and that could impact other global processes.

The participation of UN Secretary-General António Guterres at the Astana summit — a first in SCO’s history — added to the gravitas of the occasion. The Secretary-General made a special plea for leadership and commitment to implement the Paris Agreement on climate change. This is an area where India has a chance at global leadership if it plays its cards well and wins the support of China and Russia along with that of the European Union.

In the SCO, India is on a new trajectory and has to make its way without its “defining partner”, the US. This is a challenge replete with opportunities.

The author is an independent political and foreign affairs commentator based in New Delhi