Rogue neighbour’s new rogue act

Periodically, Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) offers fresh evidence that it remains a rogue agency. This includes the year-long saga involving its abduction from Iran of a former Indian naval officer, Kulbhushan Jadhav, who was recently sentenced to death by a secret military court in Pakistan for being an Indian “spy”. The case indeed stands out as a symbol of the thuggish conduct of an irredeemably scofflaw state.

Just because Pakistan alleges that Jadhav was engaged in espionage against it, this cannot justify the ISI’s kidnapping of him from Iran or his secret, mock trial in a military court. The trial showed, if any evidence were needed, that decisive power still rests with the military generals. In fact, the announcement that Jadhav had been sentenced to death with the Pakistan army chief’s approval was made by the military, not the government, despite its major implications for Pakistan’s relations with India.

Add to the picture the Pakistani military’s ongoing export of terrorism, and it is clear that Pakistan is in standing violation of every canon of international law. The right of self-defence is embedded as an “inherent right” in the UN Charter. India is entitled to defend its interests against the terrorism onslaught by imposing deterrent costs on the Pakistani state and its terrorist agents, including the ISI.

Unfortunately, successive Indian governments have failed to pursue a consistent and coherent Pakistan policy. Like his previous two predecessors, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has pursued a meandering policy. Modi has played the Pakistan card politically at home but not lived up to his statements on matters ranging from Balochistan to the Indus Waters Treaty. Indeed, there has been visible backsliding on his stated positions. For example, the suspended Permanent Indus Commission has been revived.

The Modi government talks tough in public but, on policy, acts too cautiously. For example, it persuaded Rajeev Chandrasekhar to withdraw his private member’s bill in the Rajya Sabha for India to declare Pakistan as a state sponsor of terrorism. India has shied away from imposing any kind of sanctions on Pakistan or even downgrading the diplomatic relations.

When history is written, Modi’s unannounced Lahore visit on Christmas Day in 2015 will be viewed as a watershed. If the visit was intended to be a peace overture, its effect was counterproductive. Modi’s olive branch helped transform his image in Pakistani military circles from a tough-minded, no-nonsense leader that Pakistan must not mess with to someone whose bark is worse than his bite.

Within days of his return to New Delhi, the ISI scripted twin terrorist attacks on India’s forward air base at Pathankot and the Indian consulate in Mazar-i-Sharif, Afghanistan. Worse was India’s response: While the four-day siege of the Pathankot base was still on, India shared intelligence on the attack with an agency that it should have branded a terrorist entity long ago — the ISI— and then hosted a Pakistani inquiry team.

Emboldened, the ISI went on to orchestrate more attacks. The deadly Uri army-base attack became Modi’s defining moment. Sensing the danger of being seen as little more than a paper tiger, Modi responded with a limited but much-hyped cross-border military operation against terrorist bases. The one-off strike, however, did not deter the Pakistani military, which later staged the attack on India’s Nagrota base.

The Pakistani military is waging an undeclared war against an India that remains adrift and reluctant to avenge even the killing of its military personnel. There are several things India can do, short of a full-fledged war, to halt the proxy war. But India must first have clear strategic objectives and display political will. Reforming the Pakistani military’s behaviour holds the key to regional peace.

The Jadhav case illustrates that, as long as New Delhi recoils from imposing deterrent costs on Pakistan, the military there will continue to up the ante against India. Indeed, it has turned Jadhav into a bargaining chip to use against India. The battle against Pakistan’s cross-border terrorism is a fight India has to wage on its own by translating its talk into action.

The author is a strategic thinker and commentator.