Rocky road for climate policy

Even before taking oath as the next President of the United States, Donald Trump has moved to repeal Obamacare and to plan a wall on the border with Mexico. Will he deliver on his other big promise and pull the US out of the Paris Climate Agreement? That is the indication from Trump’s appointment of climate change sceptic Scott Pruitt as head of the country’s Environment Protection Agency (EPA). Will such a pull-out matter? Domestically, yes. Globally, the effect will be more psychological than anything else, except in the area of climate research.

Within the US, Trump’s probable move will be to stop outgoing President Barack Obama’s Clean Power Plan. Many states have already moved significantly towards renewable energy sources under the plan, and they are likely to continue because they can see the economic sense in it. But the advance will be hit because federal financial support is likely to vanish.

Internationally, there is a precedent of the US going back on its word. The first big global climate agreement was the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, under which developed countries had to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases that cause climate change. The US government under Bill Clinton signed the protocol, but the next government under George W. Bush Jr did not ratify it. So, the US stayed out.

Other developed countries were terribly miffed, because they felt this gave US industry an unfair advantage. That is why these countries were so keen to include the US in the next agreement, the one reached in Paris in December 2015. And now, the next US President may pull his country out of that agreement as well. Such a move will surely anger industrialists in other developed countries again, but not to the same extent.

The world is not the same as it was in 2001. American industrialists have been replaced by Chinese manufacturers as the main global competitors. And China clearly sees a big business opportunity in renewable energy. Already, most of the solar panels and wind turbines used anywhere in the world are made by the Chinese. Now, China has decided to invest at least another US$360 billion in renewable energy by 2020.

Despite its decision not to ratify the Kyoto Protocol, the US remained a very influential player in international climate negotiations because it is the world’s largest economy and second largest emitter of greenhouse gases. Developing countries, including India, made emission control commitments under the Paris agreement largely due to the insistence of the US. If the US now pulls out of the agreement, they will have good reason to feel betrayed. But it is unlikely to derail the agreement.

The last global climate summit took place in the Moroccan city of Marrakech as the US presidential election results came out, and there was much talk there about the effect of a possible Trump pull-out. But finally, there were strong indications that the rest of the world is now ready to go ahead with their agenda irrespective of what the US may do. That brings up another question. Under the Paris agreement and previous decisions, developed countries are committed to provide US$100 billion per year to developing countries by 2020 to help combat climate change. What happens to that if the US pulls out? Not much. The US government commitment out of that $100 billion is $3 billion. The US will lose face if it reneges on that commitment, but that is about all.

However, there is one area that will really suffer in case of a Trump-induced pull-out, and that is climate science. American scientists in government and university laboratories are at the forefront of climate research, and there is every indication that their funding will be seriously slashed, if not stopped altogether. This will be a deplorable development. Other countries will have to take up the slack, but that will take time, and the world will suffer.

The author is Director, thethirdpole.net and indiaclimatedialogue.net