Polls stir an ethnic cauldron

Elections in north-east India are events where ethnic identities are mobilised and tested for their strength and currency. In Manipur, it also becomes a window to the fissures in society. The upcoming elections on March 4 and 8 comes at a crucial juncture. The past few years have witnessed the intensification of polarised ethnic positions, which unsurprisingly dominates the poll campaigns. The most prominent poll agenda is on the question of the territorial integrity of the state itself. Prime Minister Narendra Modi told his audience at a campaign speech at Imphal last week that the Naga Accord does not contain anything that would hurt the interest of Manipur. That was the best he could deliver on a Framework Agreement that many observers believe only NSCN(IM) leader Th. Muivah, National Security Adviser Ajit Doval, Indo-Naga interlocutor RN Ravi and the PM are privy to. 

Apart from common electoral issues of development, employment and anti-corruption, the valley and the the hills have their respective political concerns. In the valley districts, which account for 40 of the 60 seats in the assembly, the protection of territorial integrity of Manipur evokes much emotional support. All parties equally feed on this insecurity among the Meitei community. While the Congress accused the BJP of not divulging the details of the Framework Agreement between the Centre and NSCN (IM), the BJP, National People’s Party (NPP) and others have asserted through their manifesto that the territorial integrity of Manipur would be safeguarded.

Candidates have been requested by United Committee Manipur (UCM) and Committee of Civil Societies Kangleipak (CSSK) to sign the ‘Pledge to the people of Manipur’ to protect the territorial integrity of Manipur and more than 90 of them have complied.

Concurrently, various tribal groups are trying to leverage this election to pursue their political demands. In the Naga inhabited region, the demand for an Alternative Arrangement called by the United Naga Council (UNC) continues to hold currency, although it appears that the Naga Accord seems to have taken that demand on board. The Naga People’s Front (NPF), whose manifesto seeks to “work and assist… for a peaceful solution of the Indo-Naga political issue” and work for the integration of all Naga inhabited areas, holds strong support in several constituencies. 

In the Zo (Kuki-Zomi-Hmar) inhabited areas too, the political demands include Kuki statehood, Autonomous Hill State under Article 244A, and implementation of the Sixth Schedule. The present Congress government is opposed to the extension of Sixth Schedule provisions to the tribal districts on multiple occasions. However, it is ironic that the Congress has several senior tribal leaders and strongholds. The creation of seven new districts in December last year is likely to ensure that Congress would win from those constituencies falling under the new districts

Perhaps, only PRJA (People’s Resurgence and Justice Alliance) led by Irom Sharmila and a few candidates in Churachandpur promise a new wave of youth-focussed, corruption-free politics. However, they are limited to few pockets and their influence in electoral outcomes remain doubtful. In such a scenario where ethnic insecurities and aspirations intersect, the role of political parties adds to the complexity as they play along these very issues for their own electoral goals. It is the convergence of ethnic-based political actors, many of them armed groups, colluding with political parties that complicates elections and governance in Manipur. Surprisingly, the extra-judicial killings, the Inner Line Permit and the unburied bodies of eight tribals killed in the aftermath of the infamous three bills passed by the government in August 2015 did not make it to the poll agenda of most parties.

The undercurrent in Manipur’s politics has always been the presence of insurgent groups who have taken to different modes of operation. For the moment, both Chief Minister Okram Ibobi Singh and his opponents in the hills need each other. Ibobi’s prospects for a fourth term are enhanced by the persistence of the economic blockade by Naga groups and the Naga Accord coupled with the absence of a chief ministerial candidate in the rival camps. Meanwhile, tribal candidates highlight Ibobi’s alleged neglect of tribal demands and lack of development in the hill districts as a rallying point for winning votes.

The author is a Chevening scholar (2015-16) at University of London and writes on north-east India’s politics and developmental issues.