Out-of-the-box thinking can help defuse the Doklam crisis

China is great at Olympic sports but is not a powerhouse at chess, so perhaps it should be forgiven its ignorance of Zugzwang. Zugzwang is a chess term describing a position a player finds himself or herself in, such that any move is a wrong one. That is what China finds itself in at present in Doklam. How did such a gross miscalculation come about?

Essentially, it all revolves around Xi’s reach for absolute power and the grand master plan for World Domination by China that his team had prepared in terms of the OBOR (One Belt One Road) project. The 19th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party in November 2017 will be the key event to achieve one major milestone for Xi, getting a second term. A ringing endorsement for OBOR at the international congregation China hosted in March would have cleared the road for this, but it did not happen. India refused to bow, red-flagging the portion of the road meant to go through territory it claims in PoK.

China has been very sure of its military and economic superiority over India, and its math is absolutely spot on. So it decided to try its old gambit: Nibble away a bit of Bhutan’s territory and flex some military muscle, pretty certain India would get the message. Math proficiency does not automatically translate into a chess one and the plan unravelled as India refused to play by the old script. Not only has there been no blinking, India has also begun to show its iron hand in a velvet glove by a soft, unofficial boycott of Chinese goods.

So where do we go from here?

Militarily, for China, it would be easy to roll over whatever Bhutanese army presence is there on the spot, but it would be a big PR disaster. Surrounded by smaller neighbours, all of whom are wary of Chinese intentions, any action against tiny Bhutan will accelerate the process of consolidation of the smaller neighbours around India. It may also be possible for China to inflict some level of casualties and grab some territory if it goes after India. But India is sure to retaliate and will certainly inflict a few casualties itself. That too would be a PR disaster for China. Not much can be hidden from the internet and a few hurtful images going around can cause immense damage to China’s Superpower image of itself and to Xi personally. Therein lies the rub.

From the Chinese perspective, Bhutan is the key. If Bhutan can be bullied or cajoled or threatened into conceding that patch of land to China, game over. But tiny Bhutan has stood firm, so far at least, so there is no easy way back home.

Turning to the Indian side, what strategy would serve Indian interests best? Letting the stalemate continue into winter, permitting some sort of pull back is a theoretical possibility discussed by many. It sounds good, but to the Chinese, it would imply a sure loss of face. And making a powerful neighbour lose face may not necessarily be the smartest long-term option available.

Some out-of-the-box thinking is required, so how about this?

India should put on the table some major unrelated or practically inexpensive concession, say about the BRICS Bank or even formation of a joint OBOR committee to see if India’s reservations could be addressed. This should sufficiently massage Chinese egos to permit a restoration of status quo ante in Doklam.

India must rediscover its strong bonds with Russia while strengthening the already robust Defence cooperation with Japan and Vietnam. 

India needs to strongly leverage its soft power to the maximum because it has neighbourhood traction in areas like Films and Cricket which China simply does not.

Opening up film and TV training institutes under the guidance of veterans or cricket coaching academies in neighbouring countries can earn India huge brownie points. In case you missed it, most of Afghanistan was glued to their TV sets whenever the two young Afghan lads, Rashid Khan and Mohammed Nabi turned out for their IPL team. Sometimes, promotion of pawns to queens is required to dominate the chess board. 

The author is a news junkie who also happens to be a lyricist, scriptwriter, TV Producer, engineer and manager