J&K Floods : Caught in the swirl of politics

When the devastating floods struck Jammu and Kashmir, the Government of India (GoI) led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi said all the right things. While on a visit to J&K to review the impact of the floods, Mr Modi talked about making all resources of the GoI available for help. He announced a relief package of Rs1,000 crore and even graciously offered support to Pakistan to deal with floods across the line of control (LOC).

Mr Modi’s was a good visit. Even as the full extent of the floods was still unclear, he raised the hopes of millions caught in nature’s fury. As communication lines snapped and the Government of Jammu and Kashmir (GoJK) collapsed, it became clear that GoI would play an even more important role than it does in other disasters. And, for a while, it did appear that the GoI would effectively rise to the challenge. The cabinet secretariat and the home ministry deputed teams to coordinate rescue and early relief efforts. The GoI activated the armed forces and the National Disaster Response Force (NDRF). Welcome as these initial steps were, such GoI contributions are standard when a major disaster strikes any state. 

There are two reasons for sustained GoI involvement in J&K. First, the collapse of the GoJK at the peak of flooding has severely eroded its credibility. Second, the GoI is aware that the magnitude of the calamity that has struck J&K is far beyond the limited handling capacity of GoJK. But, with elections on the horizon, politics appears to be overpowering humanitarian considerations. The GoJK is all but certain to fail a test that would put pressure on the ablest of governments. This could benefit the BJP in the elections, or so its strategists seem to think. To make matters worse, the GoI is also not facilitating access to other sources of help such as international aid institutions that routinely provide assistance in other states. It appears to be a classic dog-in-the-manger syndrome.

A tale of 2 states: Uttarakhand 2013 vs. Jammu and Kashmir 2014

It is useful to review how the GoI responded to the disastrous flash floods that struck Uttarakhand in June last year. Official sources indicated that 900,000 people were affected, 580 people died, almost 5,000 were reported missing, 4,200 villages were affected, 9,200 cattle/livestock were lost, about 3,320 houses were fully damaged, about 995 public buildings were damaged.

As with Mr Modi’s J&K visit, the then Prime Minister, Mr. Manmohan Singh visited Uttarakhand. He announced a Rs1,000 crore initial relief package, as was done for J&K. The Government of Uttarakhand (GoU) invited a team of United Nations experts to prepare a “rapid needs assessment”, just two weeks after the flooding. Presumably, GoI was in the loop. To prepare a damage and loss assessment and to quantify long-term recovery and reconstruction needs, the GoI sought help from the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank (ADB). The GoI provided a relief and reconstruction package that included US$400 million in soft loans from the World Bank and ADB.

In contrast, preliminary official data shows that the J&K floods affected 12.5 lakh families. The floods damaged 3.50 lakh structures — mostly residential houses. The floods fully damaged 83,000 pucca houses and 21,162 kuccha houses and partially damaged 1.5 lakh houses. Over 10,000 milch animals and 33,000 sheep perished in the floods. There are huge losses in agriculture, horticulture and tourism. The Government of Jammu and Kashmir's preliminary estimates of losses are above Rs1 lakh crore.

While these estimates require confirmation, it is clear that the flooding has been on an epic scale. But, as one weary day turns into another, the GoI’s engagement is becoming less visible. What else could explain that even after three weeks of cessation of rains,  residential areas are still inundated by stagnant water? Why are people living in makeshift tents, and why are relief efforts coming under attack from all quarters? We can blame the GoJK but any independent observer will tell you that local authorities cannot deal with the aftermath on their own. Yet no call has been made to the UN even though Secretary General Ban Ki-moon has offered help. There has been no request to the World Bank or Asian Development Bank (ADB) even though Mr Modi said at the UN General Assembly that Kashmir floods were a priority. Mr Modi called it a “national level disaster” and yet there appears to be little national level involvement.

It is never too late to do the right thing

I hope I am wrong and that the Central Government does indeed have a plan that could help the people and their beleaguered government to match the enormity of the task facing us in J&K. But the plan must include a credible, independent assessment of J&K’s medium to long-term recovery and reconstruction needs. For this, the technical expertise of the World Bank, the ADB and the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) are critical. This assessment should involve Central and State governments as well as civil society stakeholders.

There are other areas that require immediate attention — where the Central Government can help. Minimising health risks and further damage to infrastructure, cleaning up debris and removing remaining water are top priorities. We also need a strategy to build shelters to take care of the displaced people during winter. A vulnerability assessment of river embankments and flood channels to reduce risks of another flood is also important. Restoration of communication networks and water and sanitation services remain on the short-term agenda. A team must start work immediately to draw up a business continuity plan that will eliminate the risk of the type of catastrophic government failure that we witnessed during the flooding. 

There is much to do to help J&K get back on its feet. But, it bears repeating that the state government alone cannot fulfil that task. The GoI must be an active partner if we are to deal effectively with the flood aftermath. For missteps during the floods, there will be time for full accountability. But, for now, let us do the right thing.

The author is a National Media Panellist of the Indian National Congress. Earlier, he headed the World Bank’s Disaster Risk Management teams in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Views expressed are personal.