In northeast India, an ISIS threat is brewing

The world is so used to hurtling from crisis to crisis that it rarely stops to think of the last one and whether the threats from it have passed or continue to persist. This understanding is best applicable to the rise and supposed fall of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), also known as Daesh. ISIS burst on the international scene in mid-2014, declared an Islamic Caliphate, employed the most depraved methods of fighting in its battle against followers of all other beliefs, including those within Islam, and acted as an established state with a defined territory, imposing taxes and even indulging in trade. Its intellectual capacity led to the creation of some of the most attractive online messaging of an ideology to draw recruits from all over the world, many of them from diverse faiths with an attitude bordering on nihilism. It ran an empire briefly with a political capital at Raqqa in Syria and an economic stronghold at Mosul in northern Iraq. In spite of modern technologies of surveillance, no international boundaries could hold back the supporters who flocked to it from around the world and the military wherewithal that ISIS received. It even sold the oil it produced from the captured oil refinery at Mosul and among its customers were nations with whom it fought.

ISIS fought as a state and in the conventional military mode against organised forces, giving battle at Fallujah, Mosul and Raqqa, even as the empire shrank. The last battle of the built-up areas was at Raqqa (Syria) or so we thought; it lasted through June to Oct 2017. Even as this battle was raging, a similar major standoff was underway in the Philippines city of Marawi, Mindanao, where ISIS fighters had captured the city and the Philippines Army fought a pitched street-to-street battle to regain control. Marawi was an attempt to establish an alternative base for ISIS, away from the humdrum of the Middle East and the Af-Pak region, both of which were under major surveillance and domination of adversaries; it would take far too long to establish in Af-Pak anything like Mosul or Raqqa and would need far more resources. Marawi was considered an interim alternative.

Now we learn that Raqqa wasn’t really the last battle to evict the ISIS which continues to exist in more than just a virtual state. The organised terror attacks in European cities may have ended and its revolutionary tactics of information warfare may have ceased but in the eastern Syrian city of Hajin, ISIS continues to exist; with a reported strength as high as 4000 fighters. It has switched its strategy from the conventional defence of strongholds and rapid forays to the typical guerilla style of fighting small. In the Euphrates Valley, a US-backed alliance of Syrian Kurds and Arab rebel fighters had battled this element effectively until a series of Turkish attacks against the Kurdish areas in the north in January 2018 forced the Kurds to leave and assist their own compatriots against the Turkish army. This diluted the campaign allowing the ISIS fighters to spring back. The US propensity to keep threatening the withdrawal of the 500 Special Forces personnel who act as the core directors of the campaign also gave ISIS the potential window it was seeking. Now a fresh campaign has commenced with the return of many of the Kurds, induction of French Special Forces and renewed support from US naval warplanes and the Iraqi Air Force.

What is ISIS attempting and why? Many of its fighters escaped the Raqqa dragnet and are still in the process of making their way to newly designated areas. These areas could be in Africa, Af-Pak region and South East Asia.

There has been no high-end success anywhere although the Philippines still continues to remain in focus due to ongoing Islamic insurgencies and the sheer nature of terrain and presence of hundreds of islands. ISIS is still looking for a temporary parking place pending establishment of a more effective stronghold closer to the Middle East. For its ultimate destination, ISIS is essentially on the lookout for a region/nation where there is disaffection with an Islamic colour, transnational border regions are weakly held and potential for turbulence is high; this is the environment it would thrive in. The closer it is to the Islamic territories of the Middle East the better it would be for its Caliphate-based ambitions. The ideal location for such intent is the Af-Pak region and north-west Afghanistan has been on the scanner for long. Two reasons for this have been spoken over some time: One, the existence of a lucrative illegal narcotics trade network and two, the potential of moving north towards Turkmenistan’s rich gas resources, both of which can finance the future ambitions of ISIS. However, the presence of Taliban and what’s turning out to be its surprising cooperation with Iran is still helping to keep ISIS at bay.

From Syria-Iraq to Af-Pak and on to Mindanao in the Philippines is a huge geographical expanse. However, many times the scans miss out another area which has emerged with serious potential for the kind of revival ISIS seeks.

This is the Myanmar- Bangladesh border. Bangladesh reports the eviction of a million plus Rohingyas, Muslims from Myanmar’s Rakhine province bordering Bangladesh, due to a virtual genocide-like campaign by the mainly Buddhist army of Myanmar. Refugees camped in an area near the Myanmar-Bangladesh border in inhuman conditions, is the type of breeding ground that ISIS seeks. Bangladesh has also been subjected to ISIS influence and in July 2016 suffered a major terror attack at the Holey Artisan Bakery, Dhaka, which had a deep-dyed ISIS colour. This area borders India’s Northeast which has been restive for many years. There is a Muslim population on the Indian side which could be vulnerable too. With an active ISIS lookout for future potential zones with criteria which suits its strategy, the broad swathe of territory from Thailand to Northeast India bears vulnerability towards an ISIS perception of a temporary parking space and exploitation of the human capital from this region. ISIS efforts towards targeting the Indian subcontinent have not succeeded for the want of an effective operating base. India’s northeast must be prevented from becoming any part of that. 

The author commanded the 15 Corps in J&K and is now the Chancellor, Central University of Kashmir. Views expressed are personal.