Indian government must not let Pakistan off the hook

Prime Minister Narendra Modi knows better than anyone else that Pakistan cannot be trusted. There will, however, be calls for him to play global statesman, especially after his “New India” speech last Sunday, and offer Pakistan a renewed hand in friendship. Modi risked personal political capital by inviting Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to his inauguration on May 26, 2014 and then making an impromptu visit to Lahore on Sharif’s birthday on December 25, 2015. He got Pathankot and Uri in return. Modi toughened his stance with Islamabad in two calculated phases. First, he ordered the Indian army to conduct massive retaliatory fire against Pakistani Rangers and soldiers across the Line of Control (LoC). Within days, ceasefire violations by Pakistan, which had become nearly daily occurrences causing civilian and army causalties, fell significantly. Islamabad lost scores of Rangers and soldiers to intense Indian artillery and mortar.

Terror attacks by Pakistan-sponsored jihadis, however, continued. They are an inexpensive way for the Pakistani military-ISIS establishment to cause Indian fatalities. The surgical strike on September 29, 2016, which killed dozens of Pakistani terrorists and soldiers 2 kilometres inside Pakistani territory, was the second phase in the strategic shift in India’s Pakistan policy. It imposed for the first time a finite cost on Islamabad for using terrorism as an instrument of state policy. Over the past five months, since the late-September surgical strike, terror attacks have declined but not stopped. Clearly, India’s follow-up actions have been inadequate. In the immediate aftermath of the surgical strikes, Modi had asked for a report on how India’s use of water under the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) could be optimised as part of several options to rein in Pakistan-funded-proxy terrorism. Power projects in Jammu & Kashmir have been starved of power for decades because India has not drawn water it was legally entitled to under the IWT. 

Armed with India’s enhanced (but entirely legal) use of water under the IWT, New Delhi must now show grater firmness when negotiating its new power projects under the IWT with Pakistan and the World Bank. The 1960 IWT, midwifed by the World Bank, is heavily loaded in Pakistan’s favour. Water commissioners from India and Pakistan are scheduled to meet in Lahore on March 19-20 to deliberate on India’s concerns. The World Bank’s pro-Pakistan tilt, however, continues unabated. Islamabad knows that memories in India are short. The ministry of external affairs (MEA) is not known for displaying strong resolve on Pakistan-sponsored terrorism. An MEA statement in Parliament last week ruled out declaring Pakistan a state sponsor of terrorism because “India has diplomatic relations with Pakistan and such a declaration would be contrary to international law.”

A more supine statement is hard to imagine. Unless Pakistan is treated as an outlaw nation – and diplomatic relations downgraded – its proxy terrorists will keep on killing Indian soldiers and civilians on Indian soil. Last week’s LoC violations and terrorist attack in J&K underscore Pakistan’s intent to continue using terrorism as a lever to bring India to the negotiating table. American senators have shown greater resolve in tackling the threat Pakistan poses. Ted Poe, who heads the House of Representatives’ sub-committee on terrorism and non-proliferation, co-wrote an op-ed last week: “Something must change in our dealings with a terrorist-supporting, irresponsible nuclear-weapons state (Pakistan), and it must change soon.” 

For India that change must begin by showing far greater firmness with Pakistan (and the World Bank) on the IWT in Lahore later this week. Other diplomatic, economic and military measures to punish Pakistan for its undeclared war on India must follow. If they don’t, Indian soldiers and civilians will continue to die at the hands of Pakistan-funded terrorists. A team of Indian parliamentarians, led by Congress MP Shashi Tharoor, is currently attending a 40-nation Asian Parliamentary Assembly in Murree, 30 km from Islamabad. Does this represent a thaw? It should not. Murree was the same picturesque resort where India’s top security officials were deliberately rendered incommunicado in “no-network” Murree on November 26, 2008, by the ISI during the 26/11 Mumbai terror attack. Tharoor and his co-delegates Swapan Dasgupta and Meenakshi Lekhi, in Murree this week, should keep Pakistan’s perfidy firmly in mind. 

The writer is author of The New Clash of Civilizations: How The Contest Between America, China, India and Islam Will Shape Our Century. He tweets @MinhazMerchant.