India’s Act-East policy can deter Chinese aggression

Recently the ASEAN India Connectivity Summit (AICS) on the theme of “Powering Digital and Physical Linkages” for Asia in the 21st century was held in New Delhi. Since the unveiling of India’s Look East Policy in 1992 and then its transformation into “Act East Policy” in 2014, India has endeavoured to strengthen connectivity to ASEAN in a variety of ways.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi had attended ASEAN-India and East Asia Summits in the second week of November in Manila. While making his address in the ASEAN summit, PM Modi stressed that India placed ASEAN at the core of its ‘Act East Policy’. New Delhi has been able to expand its political, security and economic relationship with ASEAN in many ways but the question remains whether India has acquired adequate heft to shape and influence the policies in the region.

It is also well known that many South East Asian countries including the Philippines have been facing challenges from radical Islam. As the events of May, this year, reveal, Marawi City, a predominantly Muslim stronghold on the heavily Catholic island of Mindanao in the Philippines, was racked by ISIS-inspired terrorism and violence till it was brought under control by the security forces. India, in a small way, contributed $500,000 for relief and rehabilitation of those affected by the violence in Marawi City. This was the first time that India extended such kind of aid to another country.

During the 15th ASEAN-India summit in November, PM Modi, while extending support for a rules-based security architecture for the region, also focused on counter-terrorism cooperation. He observed: “We have suffered due to the menace of terror. The time has come for us to unite and think about mitigating terrorism”.

ASEAN remains at the core of the Indo-Pacific region both in terms geographical and geostrategic perspectives. On the sidelines of ASEAN summit, a quad of powers, that is, India, the US, Australia and Japan had met to evolve responses to the emerging security dynamics in the region. The quad can only be successful if it has some elements of economic cooperation and development, including enhancing connectivity as part of its charter.  

On the other hand, Japan has come forward and in a collaborative effort with India established India-Japan ‘Act East Forum’. The first meeting of the Forum was held in the first week of December in New Delhi. The new Forum also rhymes well with the objectives of Japan’s “Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy”. While Japan has already undertaken a number of connectivity and infrastructure developmental projects in the Northeast region, this Forum will further identify such projects for enhancing connectivity, industrial linkages, people-to-people contacts through tourism, culture and sports-related activities. From an Indian perspective, the Northeast region is the launch pad for India’s Act East Policy and its development is a necessary condition for realisation of India’s policy goals.

India has collectively invited all heads of state or government of ASEAN to be the chief guests at its 2018 Republic Day celebrations. This is the first time that more than one head of state or government will be part of the Republic Day celebrations. The unusual step is being taken to commemorate not only the 70th year of India’s independence, but also the 50th anniversary of the creation of ASEAN. India and ASEAN will also celebrate 25 years of partnership since its Look East policy was launched by Prime Minister PV Narasimha Rao in 1992.

Together, India and ASEAN account for about 1.9 billion people (about 650 million in ASEAN) and a combined GDP of nearly $4 trillion. Two-way trade is about $71 billion, on par with Delhi’s trade with Beijing. Negotiations between ASEAN plus six on Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership agreement are in advanced stage and their conclusion would be another step towards regional economic integration. India already has an FTA with ASEAN in both goods and services and so do some other countries in the region.

Growing military capabilities of China and its propensity to assert its claims in South China and the East China Sea, have created an environment of insecurity in the region. Those countries also have to make difficult choices between their economic objectives where China is of help and their strategic objectives.

China’s Belt and Road Initiative that includes Maritime Silk Road has both economic and strategic dimensions. ASEAN members have attempted to pursue their interests through multi-vector policies but China has been able to divide them from achieving unity of approach with ASEAN as the platform.

On the other hand, India is seen as a power which does not threaten or challenge their national interests and can, in some way, contribute to their security. India is viewed as a country that can play a moderating role in the region as New Delhi is seen more as a benign power as compared to many other players in the region.  

While India may not have the political or the economic clout of ASEAN’s other envisaged partners, it is likely that with rising trajectory India will become a pole of influence in the future.

The author is senior fellow, Vivekananda International Foundation. Views are personal.