India needs AI to secure itself

Greg Allen, a fellow at the Center for New American Security, had said, “Some technologies are so powerful that they are difficult to ignore.” Artificial Intelligence (AI) is one such technology that will make a paradigm shift in war and make it difficult for modern armies to ignore its application. AI is not a weapon but an enabler to control and dominate multi-domain wars through machine intelligence. It is consisted of a combination of mathematical algorithm tools, information, electronic and computer technology. With the help of AI, a machine is taught to analyse, think and offer solutions on multiple issues. 

Considering the potential of AI, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated on September 4, 2017, that, “Whichever country leads the way in Artificial Intelligence research, will be the ruler of the world in the 21st Century.” AI in combination with Swarm Intelligence (it is the collective behaviour of decentralised, self-organised systems, natural or artificial) can shake the international order and a small conventional military powers can cause huge damage to major military powers during conflicts.

Future wars are becoming complex, lethal and network-centric. The speed of warfare is increasing and military targets could be subjected to hypersonic kinetic and cyber-attacks simultaneously from multiple platforms. Thus, military commanders would require machine intelligence to shorten and speed up OODA (observe, orient, decide and act) loop to determine and suggest response measures with speed and in time to gain initiative and advantage over adversaries. Speed in decision-making to respond effectively to multiple threats is vital. AI in the Indian context would find immense value in data processing, multi-agency coordination, intelligence preparation of battlefield, air space management, surveillance of battle space, electronic warfare signatures and complex logistic operations since these operations are becoming increasingly difficult for humans to manage in a fast, fluid and lethal wars. 

The US applied AI in battlefield conditions during Desert Storm-I, in 1991 and since then the use of AI has been increasing at a rapid pace in military domains.  It is becoming an essential component of modern warfare and the militaries that would defer or delay incorporation of AI in its operational doctrines and concepts will lose wars before they are fought on the ground. 

China is emerging as the leader of AI and Russia, the US and Israel are not far behind. I must caution that before we plunge headlong to adopt the application of AI in our military operations, there is a need to formulate suitable doctrines, concept of operations and visualisation of battlefield scenarios to identify areas of application without compromising human control over the battlefield. After due deliberations and simulated exercises, the Armed Forces should determine suitable domains and areas of application of AI. The Armed Forces have taken baby steps to formulate concepts and areas where AI can be incorporated for operational application. 

These systems are ‘high cost, high dividend’ and require dedicated budget allocation for development and induction in service. There is a need to develop the application of AI jointly for army, navy, air, space, cyber and nuclear command under Integrated Defence Headquarters primarily because future wars will be fought by integrated commands and not by individual services or wings of the Armed Forces. 

AI is not a technology that should be bought off the shelf, it requires intense research & development suitable for existing organisational structures, operational environment and conventional and sub-conventional wars that India could be forced to fight in the subcontinent. 

India has a long way to go since the first step is doctrinal and conceptual determination of application of AI, development of AI based models, field trials of these models, evaluation of impact on operational efficiency and finally induction of AI in service either by creation of tailored structures or plug and play with the existing structures. The systems could be developed either by DRDO, or by the private sector having close interaction at every step with the military representatives. It would be ideal if these models are first introduced in training establishments because the staff and commanders are required to be trained before this technology is applied in combat scenarios. 

The jury is divided over the use of AI in autonomous weapon systems and armed robots. There are valid reasons and apprehensions because machines may not always give best options because changing battlefield scenarios would require flexibility in determination of options and response. Machines may be inflexible and could lead to flawed outcomes and reliance of delivery of weapons systems or engagements by machines could be self-destructive in a fast and fluid battlefield scenario. Considering this flaw in machine intelligence or AI, the US Department of Defence set a temporary policy requiring a human to be involved in decisions to use lethal force or weapon system. Oxford philosopher Nick Bostrom has expressed concern about the existential risk to humanity posed by AI. Similarly Tesla founder Elon Musk has said that unrestricted use of AI in military could trigger World War III. Apart from the ethical dilemma, AI systems may not be hack-proof and in competitive warfare there are dangers that they could be compromised through cyber, electronic and human intelligence during peacetime to give flawed outputs during war. India could wait for the use of AI technology in autonomous weapon systems till we are able to develop robust protocols.  

Having said this, AI has become an essential part of war because it will improve effectiveness of military hardware during war and reduce risk to human soldiers. However, the challenge will remain the high cost on induction in service and reliability on machine intelligence to give correct inputs for decisive actions during war. There are some voices in the international arena that are demanding the restriction of use of AI in autonomous weapons including drones and robots. Before a control regime is put in place, India must develop compatible AI technology for the armed forces to enable it to fight future wars.  

The author is a Senior Fellow at Centre for Land Warfare Studies (CLAWS). Views are personal