In Nepal polls, the Communist alliance has a clear edge

The first phase of direct elections was held on November 26 for 37 seats; the second phase of elections for remaining 128 seats will be held on December 7. 

The counting of votes will commence on December 8, and is expected to be completed within a week. While the total number of seats through direct elections is 165, the number of seats for elections through proportional representation is 110 and the process for these elections is going on side by side.

However, it can be said that holding of parliamentary elections after having had two Constituent Assemblies to frame a Constitution that is acceptable to the majority has been one of the biggest achievements for the fledgling democracy of Nepal.

The political parties in Nepal have been forming alliances or dissolving them frequently with an eye on claiming the chair of Prime Minister giving rise to a number of former Prime Ministers. For instance, since September 2015 there have been four Prime Ministers. On the eve of the current elections, an alliance of the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist- Leninist) and the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre), including a few smaller Communist groups, was formed to contest elections.

This development in October was a setback to the ruling party, the Nepali Congress (NC) under Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba, which had an alliance with the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre). In fact, this came as a surprise to the Nepali Congress (NC). However, the NC, in order to counterbalance, went in for an alliance with right-wing parties in forming a Democratic Alliance.

It is also quite evident that China is backing the Communist alliance headed by KP Sharma Oli of CPN (UML). Not only do the alliance and China have similar ideological outlook, the Communists are also looking forward to heavy economic benefits from China. During his tenure as Prime Minister, KP Oli had signed in March last year a trade and transit agreement with China that also included the establishment of a rail link to Nepal through Tibet.

Later, Maoist Centre chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal Prachanda had withdrawn his support in August resulting in the downfall of Oli. This move was seen as having been orchestrated by India.

Recently, the Deuba government of Nepal cancelled the Budhi Gandaki hydropower project which had been contracted to a Chinese company by the previous government. There are indications that the project might go to India’s NHPC instead. 

Meanwhile, KP Oli has stated that he will revive the project if he comes back to power.

Thus, current elections are not only a contest between various political parties of Nepal, but also it is being viewed as a competition between China and India for influence in Nepal. Though China avows that it does not interfere in the internal affairs of other countries, in recent times Beijing has been known to do so and especially so in South Asian countries to the detriment of India. 

There are reports that China has been funding the like-minded Communist parties of Nepal. For instance, in May this year, China had apparently provided Kathmandu $ 1 million for local elections.

But what is more intriguing is that some of the European countries especially so the Nordic nations are supporting the Communists through their multiple NGOs. Their agenda seems to be promoting a secular Nepal which they feel can be better attained through a Communist dispensation in Nepal.

The Nepali Congress is organisationally weak and has not been able to mount a strong and vibrant election campaign. The Madhesi parties, which are also a significant factor in the elections, remain divided and are pursuing narrow and parochial interests. But there is a possibility that some of the Madhesi parties could align with Nepali Congress.

The Communist alliance is largely contesting the elections on an anti-India plank while Nepali Congress and its allies are following a middle path. Though both sides are aware that they need to be pro-Nepal and get the best from both India and China. While India has strong cultural, historic and ethnic ties with Nepal, the allurement of an economic windfall from China is too tempting to be overlooked.

According to Nepal government sources, about 65 per cent of the electorate has voted in the first phase; however, the estimate appears to be on the higher side. There are indications that the Communist alliance is most likely to win the elections. According to some pundits, the chances of a coalition or Prachanda realigning with Nepali Congress seem to be less likely. If the Communists get a suitable majority then it is likely to impart stability to the political discourse. 

On the other hand, given the recent history and tradition of Nepal’s politics, the possibilities of infighting amongst the constituents of the Communist alliance for sharing the spoils of power, especially for the post of Prime Minister, cannot be ruled out. Obviously, implications for India in many ways would be negative if the Communist alliance gains a majority.

The author is senior fellow, Vivekananda International Foundation. Views are personal.