Hit China where it hurts most

It’s understandable that India prefers quiet diplomacy to China’s war-mongering bluster. But Indian strategists must realise that the Doklam stand-off has three dimensions: Military, geopolitical and economic. So far, foreign ministry officials have been focusing on the military dimension. Several hundred troops confront a roughly equal number of Chinese soldiers on the Dolam plateau in the Doklam region.

The Chinese have moved reinforcements closer to the disputed plateau. Two Indian brigades are operationally ready not far behind the small contingent of Indian troops on the plateau. The Indian Air Force is combat-ready. Its fighter jets can fly with a full fuel payload from plateau airfields while Chinese jets taking off from high altitude Tibetan bases can at most take off with 50 per cent payloads, severely restricting manoeuvrability. Indian military planners have taken into account that China may open up new fronts along the long India-China border where it does not suffer the handicap of the Doklam terrain.

Amidst the military-strategic planning, the geopolitical and economic dimensions of the confrontation with China have been underplayed. China is under enormous pressure over the spiralling confrontation between its rogue ally North Korea and the United States. US President Donald Trump has promised “fire and fury” if North Korea carries out its threat to launch missiles in US territorial waters off Guam island, which has a large US military base.  

Trump is furious with Chinese President Xi Jinping for not restraining North Korea. American anger over China’s complicity with North Korea’s nuclear weapons programme can have geopolitical consequences. When Xi visited the US in April, he was feted by Trump at his Florida resort. The threat to declare China a currency manipulator and impose trade sanctions on Beijing were put aside. That’s water under the bridge. The threat of trade sanctions is back on the table. US naval ships have, meanwhile, sailed threateningly close to China’s territorial waters, defying Beijing’s warnings.

For India, all this is good news. Multiple pressure points have forced China on the defensive. The BRICS summit in the southeastern Chinese coastal city of Xiamen on September 3-5 looms. The United Nations General Assembly session follows later that month. In November, the all-important Congress of the Chinese Communist Party will shape Xi’s own position as he begins his second (and last) five-year term. Xi has ruthlessly sidelined or jailed rivals and hopes to defy convention by looking at a third term in 2022. If the crises in North Korea and Doklam escalate, his position could be compromised. Indian policymakers, while rightly focusing on military preparedness on the India-China border, must leverage Beijing’s geopolitical pressure points to New Delhi’s advantage.

The third dimension in the India-China paradigm is economic. China is a large investor in India. Its hardware companies are deeply embedded in the Indian telecom ecosystem. Less well known is the aggressive push by Chinese companies into infrastructure projects like the Mumbai-Nagpur expressway and even local projects in Mumbai such as the redevelopment of BDD chawls. Of the three construction companies that bid for this project, all were foreign firms in joint venture partnerships with Indian companies. Two of these three joint ventures involve Chinese companies.

While Chinese companies are well placed to win the Mumbai-Nagpur expressway contract, ironically, all Chinese firms were disqualified by the Indian government from bidding for the Rs 18,000-crore Mumbai Trans-Harbour Link project due to its critical strategic importance.

China imposes stiff barriers on foreign companies wishing to invest in the mainland while seeking generous terms for its companies investing in countries like the US, India and those in Europe. This lack of reciprocity has upset the US which, like India, runs a large trade deficit with China.

India has been, as usual, more forgiving than the US. However, with tensions rising on the border, India must play its economic cards well. India is the world’s third largest consumer market after the US and China. For all its bluster, China recognises this. It should take a hard look at imposing tough new conditions on Chinese companies bidding for infrastructure projects.

The Doklam standoff is a wake-up call for Indian diplomacy. As the Chinese say, talk softly but carry a big stick, India talks softly but leaves its big stick at home. With the US-North Korea standoff set to roil relations between China and the West, it’s time India used all three weapons in its armoury — military, geopolitical and economic.

The writer is author of The New Clash of Civilizations: How The Contest Between America, China, India and Islam Will Shape Our Century