High stakes and rising tension in the South China Sea

Determined to wrest maximum advantage in the next three to five years that it perceives as its window of strategic opportunity, China is unyielding in efforts to push the envelope for recovering its claimed maritime territories. Tension in the South China Sea and Asia-Pacific region has consequently increased, as has angry rhetoric.

In addition to enacting domestic legislation to reinforce claims, China has recently adopted a more assertive stance. Armed vessels of China’s State Oceanic Administration ended a two month-long stand-off with Philippine Navy vessels around Scarborough Reef this June. Later China flexed economic muscle jeopardising 200,000 jobs in the Philippines by banning the import of fruits. Chinese tour operators were instructed not to take groups to the Philippines. Philippines was compelled to back off, but there has been angry, though helpless, domestic reaction.
Relations with Vietnam simultaneously got strained with Beijing objecting to Vietnamese fishermen trawling in what it claims are its territorial waters. Beijing additionally objected to Hanoi auctioning off-shore oil and natural gas blocks, situated in disputed waters, to foreign oil companies. It warned that it will take concrete steps to prevent such off-shore exploration. The commercial agreement between Vietnam and India’s ONGC to explore a block in these waters and presence of ONGC’s survey ship provided Beijing a pretext for singling India out for warnings. Meanwhile, official Chinese media articles accuse the Philippines and Vietnam of being in the”forefront” in “stirring” trouble and are urging a “counter-attack” against them.
The ASEAN Summit in Pnom Penh also closed in mid-June 2012 without, for the first time in its 45 year history, issuing a joint communiqué. China strong-armed Cambodia into disallowing other countries from presenting their arguments after Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi declared there was “no dispute” about China’s sovereignty over the reef. He warned “China hopes the Philippine side faces the facts squarely and stops creating trouble”. Cambodia’s ready susceptibility to Chinese pressure is because of huge loans granted by China.

Beijing has ratcheted pressure on other nations that dispute Chinese claims. Last month it sent 300 fishermen supported by China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) ships to waters also claimed by the Philippines. To consolidate possession, Beijing initiated administrative measures. On July 18, it established Sansha Prefecture exercising administrative jurisdiction over the disputed Spratly and Paracels Archipelagos and Macclesfield Bank. A military garrison was also established. Roads and low cost housing are being built and provision made for electricity and water for residents of Woody Island. The measures underscore Beijing’s plans to successively occupy and consolidate possession of the disputed islands in the South China Sea. Beijing assesses that US will not confront China militarily.

The change in policy was hinted at during the World Peace Forum in Beijing this June. Retired PLA Major General Luo Yuan, who is Vice President of the China Strategy Culture Promotion Association, argued that “China’s patience has been tested to its limits, and there is no room for further tolerance.” Cui Liru, President of the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR), which is affiliated to the Ministry of State Security, said Beijing had previously focused too much on shelving disputes and seeking common ground with neighbours. “We have come to realise that perhaps we need to do more in terms of demonstrating China’s sovereignty.”

In a press statement issued on August 3, Washington finally took note of China’s actions, particularly its use of “coercive economic action” and establishment of the administrative prefecture and military garrison. It urged finalisation of a comprehensive Code of Conduct and peaceful resolution of disputes.

In a sharp, swift response China’s foreign ministry spokesperson the following day expressed “firm opposition” to the US statement. The US, he said, had “totally disregarded” facts, “confounded right and wrong, and sent a seriously wrong message…not conducive to peace and stability in the South China Sea and Asia-Pacific region.” Reiterating China’s “indisputable sovereignty” over these islands and waters, it justified establishment of the administrative prefecture and military garrison as “well within its sovereign rights.” The US deputy chief of mission was summoned to the foreign ministry.

In an unrelated demonstration of PLAN’s operational reach expanding into Europe and potential influence of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), early this month a Type 052 destroyer, Type 054A frigate, and an auxiliary oil ship entered the Mediterranean en route to the Syrian coast for possible naval manoeuvres. Russia, another SCO member, last month dispatched 11 warships to the eastern Mediterranean in the largest display of Russian military power in the region since the Syrian conflict commenced.

The stakes in the South China Sea have been raised and tension is set to escalate. India too could find itself being drawn in to the dispute.