Gurdaspur by-election: Congress wrests seat from BJP: Does Modi government have a reason to worry?

The biggest problem regarding analysing by-election results is the problem of overanalysis. Sometimes while trying to read the tea leaves, we leave out the most obvious explanation. Also the trend of extrapolating one election result to look for a broader narrative is also fraught with danger. With all these caveats in place, let's try to interpret the intriguing set of numbers Gurdaspur has thrown up. 

In a by-election, be it for Lok Sabha or Assembly, the party ruling the state historically gets an edge. And that is more pronounced, when the Assembly elections have happened recently as is the case with Punjab. So it is only obvious that Captain Amarinder Singh still enjoying a honeymoon period managed to get Sunil Jakhar beyond the line, an election necessitated due to the demise of BJP MP Vinod Khanna. 

Hardly anyone thought that BJP will manage to hold on to the seat. But what has shocked many is  Sunil Jakhar's margin against his nearest BJP rival Swaran Salaria. He won by a margin of 1,93,219 votes. Incidentally Vinod Khanna won the seat in 2014 by a margin of 1,36, 065 votes. During the Punjab state elections, out of 9 assembly seats under Gurdaspur LS, Congress was ahead in 7 ( Fatehgarh Churian, Dera baba nanak, Bhoa, Pathankot, Gurdaspur, Dinanagar, Qadian), BJP in 1 (Sujanpur) and SAD in 1 seat (Batala). In total, Congress was ahead by 95,000 votes and it has more than doubled it in merely a matter of eight months to register the biggest ever victory margin in Gurdaspur. 

And this is where the Modi government needs to worry. The voting turnout was 56% for the Gurdaspur bypoll, whereas it was around 77% in the Punjab state elections. But the margin has doubled despite a steep fall in voting numbers. A part of it is attributable to AAP's dramatic collapse; it has only managed 23,000 votes,  after Chhotepur won 1.73 lakh votes in 2014. AAP lost 13% and BJP suffered a negative swing of 10% from 2014, and  the entire vote has transferred en masse to Congress kitty. This win, or more importantly the comprehensive nature of it in a semi-urban constituency in Northern India will give Congress some oxygen ahead of a crucial battle in Himachal. 

Some of the factors that definitely hampered BJP's chances are specific to this constituency such as internal dissension regarding candidate selection with Vinod Khanna's wife being denied nomination, the release of sleazy video of former Akali leader Lanagh and crucially, the absence of charismatic actor-turned-politician Vinod Khanna. Even during BJP's debacle in 2004, Khanna managed to retain Gurdaspur. He nurtured it well and managed to make it his pocketborough except during the lone hitch in 2009. But in his absence, poaching Gurdaspur was easy fodder for Captain and co. The fact that disenchanted AAP voters are returning to Congress is a matter of concern for Amit Shah not only in Punjab, but also for neighbouring Delhi. 

Now let's look whether Gurdaspur has been a bell weather constituency in successive elections. Only once in 2004, did it defy the national trend and voted for a party which didn't form government in the Centre. In 1996, Congress candidate won and although the party didn't form government, it propped up third front governments in the Centre. Hence, Gurdaspur does reflect the national mood to an extent, though it's accuracy in a by-election can't be said with any degree of certainty. But suffice to say, it will give something for the BJP high command to think about regarding its Punjab strategy. 

In the long run, BJP have to think whether it is time for  life without SAD. With corruption charges saddled against the Badals, can BJP afford to be in alliance with them and hope for revival of fortunes in the state? The 90s were about anti-incumbency but increasingly governments are selected in pro-incumbency wave. A good stint by Amarinder Singh may seal the fate of BJP in the state for the foreseeable future.