Global challenges before the Modi government this year

Looking back over the last four years, the Modi government can justifiably be proud of its foreign policy record. Apart from expanding relations with all the big powers — US, China and Russia — the prime minister has introduced a number of firsts in Indian foreign policy. His focus on the neighbourhood through the ‘Neighbourhood First Policy’, has reset the relationship between India and its neighbours, while his ‘Act East’ policy has ensured a much needed building up of ties with ASEAN countries. Modi has also presided over the successful dehyphenation between Israel and Palestine, ensuring that India’s relations in West Asia have received a boost. While India-China ties remain precarious, ties with the US, Japan and France are other feathers in the government’s cap. The government’s focus on the diaspora in different parts of the world has helped project a strong and confident India, which is ready to play an important role in international politics. As a result, the world’s perception about India has changed for the good under the Modi government.

However, while the Modi government has achieved many things, challenges continue to mount in the global sphere — the main one being Pakistan. Terrorist attacks in the Valley, coming from across the border, has ensured that Pakistan will continue to remain a major foreign policy challenge for the prime minister, a challenge that is intensifying with China building up closer ties with its ‘all-weather’ friend.  In recent times, the relationship between New Delhi and Beijing has become extremely fragile, especially after the Doklam crisis. Though New Delhi has been looking to ‘reset’ ties with Beijing, it is highly unlikely that China, under the leadership of Xi Jinping, will end its hostile approach towards India, especially when both the Asian powers are aspiring for the same power status in the same region. Beijing is also trying to lure other South Asian countries through economic assistance with the aim of isolating India in the region. This is a major challenge for the Modi government. The government will have to decide over this year as to how it should deal with China’s deepening footsteps in the region.

Apart from the China-Pakistan conundrum, the government will also view with some concern, improving ties between Russia and China, as well as Moscow’s inclination towards promoting military cooperation with Islamabad. In fact, Russia has already agreed to provide engineering assistance and engines for the Pakistani fighter jets JF-17. This is a challenge that needs to be urgently addressed.

On other fronts, the Modi government also needs to take forward issues with friendly countries. The ‘Delhi Declaration’, issued on the completion of 25 years of the relationship between India and ASEAN in January, further underlined the commitment between both sides to boost engagement. However, a major obstacle facing the relationship between the two sides is the gap between promise and performance. In fact, the two sides continue to face acute connectivity problems, negatively impacting trade and commerce prospects between them. The absence of proper infrastructure is also hampering the strengthening of military engagement between the two sides. India and ASEAN need to build up institutional and people-to-people connectivity if the expected outcomes from these renewed bonds of friendship is to be reached.

The Modi government has also reached out to countries in Central Asia and Africa, with the aim of addressing India’s energy needs. The opening of the Chabahar port in Iran has marked a new beginning in this regard. The port will help India to get easier access to the reserves of energy resources from Central Asia and provide it with a big market for its products. But India needs to quicken its pace to tap the energy resources in the region because China has already made its presence felt in the region. However, in the African continent the situation is little different. African countries want India to invest in energy and other sectors, as they see China as a ‘selfish country’.  However, fragile governments, destabilisation and the rise of hijacking incidents — especially in Somalia — are challenges for the government.

The biggest challenge facing the Modi government this year, and in the run-up to 2019, will be the rise of Islamic extremism. While India has been a victim of proxy-terror for a long time, the rise of extremist groups attacking security forces in Jammu and Kashmir and citizens through sleeper cells in other parts of the country will remain a cause for concern. Given the country’s large diaspora and migrant labour, especially in West Asia, India, too, will have to be on the lookout and prepare for terrorist attacks in the region.

While India’s image abroad under Modi is on a high, there are stern tests ahead for the government. It remains to be seen just how they cope with them.

The author is a Visiting Fellow at the National Chengchi University, Taipei. Views are personal.