Cutting off ISIS’s money supply will make huge difference

It is a field day for speculations over the terrorist outfit, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), and its impact on the global terrorism scene. The growth or decline of the ISIS is of particular interest to India, because we have been a victim of many attacks by Islamic groups in the past decade or so. There is one theory that the al-Qaeda can team up with the ISIS — although there are pronounced differences between the two groups over strategy and tactics — and that the combine can cripple many nations, including India. The reported appearance recently of a few ISIS flags in the Kashmir Valley cannot go uninvestigated. A few weeks earlier we had also been told of a group of four youths from Maharashtra who had gone to Iraq to take part in jihad, and one of them was killed in action. This is why we have to closely monitor what is happening in West Asia and draw a few lessons.

Perhaps, the most important feature of the Iraq-Syria scene is the ISIS’s capacity not to wilt under offensives launched against it. This is why the Coalition forces’ air strikes have not yet transformed the scene, and the ISIS still holds on gallantly. It seems that fire power will have to be matched by strikes in other areas. It is only the Coalition’s ability to cut into the ISIS’s finances that should complement physical strikes on the outfit. Or else one may not see the much desired swift annihilation of the ISIS.

There is a definite case to deal sternly with financial channels that are pouring money into ISIS’s coffers. Several sources suggest that the organisation — about 10,000 strong, supplemented by nearly 1000 foreign fighters — is not short of funds. It is said that the ISIS is not only the deadliest group in terms of violence unleashed against innocent citizens, including the media men, but also the richest terrorist group in the world. Even giving allowance to some exaggeration, the acceptable assessment is that the ISIS cannot be brought to its knees with its money-supply chain intact. 

Also, unlike many other terrorist organisations across the globe, including possibly the al-Qaeda, the ISIS is not dependent solely on individual contributions. It no doubt gets considerable money from individual donors, especially in the Gulf. The Saudi government is also a suspect, although a few commentators do not buy this. According to them, that government would, no doubt, like to embarrass both Iraq and Syria. It is at the same time conscious that this tactic could boomerang on them sooner than later. 

Studies, including the one conducted by the celebrated think-tank, Rand Corporation, offer convincing proof that the ISIS’s main strength is the money derived from the sale of oil extracted from the oil fields it commands in Northern Iraq. According to one estimate, it controls more than 10 oil fields and attached refineries which yield about two million dollars every day. The US and its allies are aware of this but have not yet been able to hit at the sales operations, even after getting hold of some information about buyers of crude oil. The latter struck gold through its successful raid on the central bank in Mosur which yielded $429 million in cash. This was a phenomenal operation that produced enough money to take care of the ISIS’s expenses, including regular payments to its cadres, keeping them in a state of high morale. From a holding of mere $515 million, the Mosul heist and stealing of military supplies in Iraq have pushed up the organisation’s total assets to nearly two billion dollars. 

We have a highly clued-up and dynamic National Security Adviser in Ajit Doval. I am absolutely certain he has been closely watching the ISIS and its ability to sustain itself against the West’s onslaught. He is also aware that Pakistan does not miss an opportunity to exploit whatever happens in its neighbourhood and West Asia to whip up passions against India. While the NSA, the IB and state police may effectively team up to take care of the mischief potential of the ISIS and Pakistan’s ISI, there is a lot that we as citizens can do to provide valuable inputs to them from the field. For instance, the fact that four youngsters from Maharashtra could go to Iraq and take part in the jihad did not come to our notice until one of them got killed. It is happenings like these that highlight the need for civilian contribution to official channels charged with the task of protecting us from terrorists. In the absence of such assistance, our security could be in peril.

The writer is a former CBI director