Cross-currents of loyalties

India’s Middle-East policy has long been hostage to three vulnerabilities. First, India imports most of its crude oil from West Asia. Second, over seven million Indians work in the Middle East. Third, India has a large Muslim population.

New Delhi’s foreign policy mandarins have, therefore, turned a blind eye whenever the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) passes resolutions criticising India and supporting Pakistan over Jammu & Kashmir.

India has for decades swallowed its pride, voting with the Arab bloc against Israel at the UN even as the Arab bloc votes for Pakistan over Kashmir. India’s growing relationship with Israel though has introduced a new factor in this nuanced game of balancing domestic political interests with India’s expanding geopolitical role.

This was reflected in the strong demarche the external affairs ministry sent last Saturday to the Palestinian Authority (PA) over the Palestinian ambassador to Pakistan, Walid Abu Ali, sharing a stage with the globally designated terrorist Hafiz Saeed at a major Rawalpindi rally. Within 24 hours, the PA acted. The Palestinian ambassador to India, Adnan Abu Alhaijaa, confirmed to a leading Indian daily: “Our ambassador in Pakistan has committed a fault, knowingly or otherwise. He is being recalled to Ramallah. He will no longer be Palestine ambassador to Pakistan. Relations with India are very important for us.”   

And yet the incident bares the fault lines in India’s Arab-Israel policy. India recently voted in favour of a UN resolution condemning US President Donald Trump’s decision to recognise Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. This drew a sharp protest from Israel which over the years has emerged as India’s major defence partner. Prime Minister Narendra Modi last July became the first Indian prime minister to visit Israel. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will pay a return four-day visit to India from January 16.

Despite all this, the principal actors in the frisson over Middle East politics are themselves under significant political pressure. Netanyahu faces corruption charges that could see him losing power. An Israeli court has deferred its verdict against him till the end of January 2018. Trump faces a tough 2018 with the possibility of impeachment over alleged Russian collusion during the US presidential election. Modi confronts a challenging raft of eight assembly elections in 2018 which could stall his political momentum in the run-up to the 2019 Lok Sabha poll.

In Saudi Arabia, 32-year-old crown prince Mohammad bin-Salman, heir to the throne, has upended Saudi society with gender reforms but also disgraced himself with his war on Yemen. The blockade of food and medical aid to Yemen’s starving millions has robbed MBS, as the prince likes to be called, of his reformist credentials. The other key player in the Middle East, Iran, is being wracked by violent citizens’ protests across major cities against Tehran’s hardline government.

In this cauldron, India has a nuanced but robust role to play. A month after Netanyahu’s visit, Modi flies to Palestine. The visit will be largely symbolic. Cynics will accuse India of once again balancing Palestinian and Israeli interests. But Trump’s declaration over Jerusalem has virtually killed the “two-state” solution. Backed by members of the European Union (EU) and most other countries, the solution envisaged Israel and a sovereign Palestinian state existing side by side, with east Jerusalem being the capital of the future Palestine state. With Trump’s move that solution lies in tatters.

Saudi Arabia has played a deceitful hand in this. In secret talks with Palestinian Authority (PA) chief Mahmoud Abbas, crown prince Mohammad bin-Salman told him bluntly to accept a truncated Palestinian state without east Jerusalem. This has been rejected by the PA which though has neither the military power nor diplomatic clout to do anything about the Saudi betrayal. Against this backdrop, the Palestinians can ill afford to alienate a longtime friend like India. Hence the marching orders to its ambassador in Pakistan for sharing a stage with Hafiz Saeed.

Will this change the way the Arabs vote on a future India-Pakistan resolution in the OIC over Jammu & Kashmir? No. In the Middle East, Islamic blood runs thicker than water. For the present, Modi will focus on welcoming Netanyahu to India (Ahmedabad is his first stop) followed by the symbolic visit to Palestine. A more tactical move would be for India to leverage the intensifying rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Iran has been annoyed with Pakistan over skirmishes between Islamabad-funded terrorists and Iranian border guards even as it seeks Pakistani involvement in its India-aided Chabahar port. The Saudis too are upset with Pakistan for refusing to send troops for its Islamic coalition military force waging an unsuccessful war against Yemen. Islamabad pacified Riyadh by allowing former army chief Raheel Sharif to head the Saudi-led coalition which has been humiliated by the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen.

For India, it is time to refashion its Middle East policy in a region where equations are fluid and alliances based on expediency. Modi’s engagement with Israel and Palestine over the next few weeks could be the trigger to shed New Delhi’s kid gloves approach in a geography that best understands the grammar of power.

The writer is author of The New Clash of Civilizations: How The Contest Between America, China, India and Islam Will Shape Our Century