Can India-Pak improve ties?

India-Pakistan Track Twos are not outcome oriented but they keep the conversation going when Track One dialogue gets suspended like after the beheading of Naik Hemraj in 2013. It is likely that Prime Minister Modi’s government may become the only Indian regime that did not engage Pakistan in official dialogue during its five-year term ending next year. But Pakistan is uniquely blessed because a third elected government is completing its full term. As a result, no India-Pakistan dialogue will be possible till well into 2019 after elections have been held in both countries. Elections in Pakistan under a caretaker government will be held on July 25, while the Modi government may call an early election by the end of the year, depending on the public mood.

The overall mood at the 23rd uninterrupted India-Pakistan dialogue held last week at Kathmandu under the auspices of the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung (FES) was one of guarded optimism: the glass being half full. This is certainly a marked improvement on the ‘tunnel at the end of light’ situation since the fabled surgical strikes, which did little to arrest Pakistan’s cross-border terrorism. This no-war-no-peace affliction will prevail unless you have another accidental Musharraf or a miracle, which rescues the two countries from the rut.

In Kathmandu, therefore, the spotlight was on conceptualising and operationalising CBMs to improve connectivity between the people of the two countries while surveying the security scene and looking for the elusive window of opportunity to inject the CBMs. So, the first question the participants asked of each other was: has anything changed in the last six months (since they last met) of satisfying that Indian conditionality that terror and talks cannot go together. The answer was a no.   

Having attempted conflict resolution with the good offices of the UN, mediation by the US under John Kennedy and bilaterally the Simla Agreement and the Lahore venture, experts on both sides agreed that they had hit a cul-de-sac. Reading the tea leaves and clutching at straws in the wind some saw recent events that augured well for improving relations. 

First, elections in Pakistan, however messy, would proceed unhindered, though stories were told about rigging by the ISI to prevent the Army’s bete noir Nawaz Sharif’s PML(N) from returning to power for a fourth time. The Army is believed to be engineering the formation of a weak government from a hung house. Its choice of Prime Minister is Imran Khan whose dirty linen is being laundered by his former second wife. Pakistanis recalled how in the 1990s the ISI — confirmed by its former head Asad Durrani — ensured Benazir Bhutto lost the elections. Every trick in the bag will be used to get anyone other than a PML(N) prime minister. Bilawal Bhutto is calling Sharif ‘Modi ka yaar’ to nail his enemy connection. Still if elections are held today, PML(N) would emerge as the single-largest party and Sharif’s brother Shahbaz could become the Prime Minister. 

The second point to be noted is that the judiciary has played a pivotal role in shaping civil military relations and their power balance. It has justified military intervention under the doctrine of necessity. But it changed tack in 2007 — from friend to foe — after the lawyers’ agitation. It is back once again doing the army’s bidding and has become its ally by dismissing Nawaz Sharif. It was the current caretaker Prime Minister Nasirul Mulk’s bench, which unseated Yousuf Raza Gilani in the last government. The present day judiciary in Pakistan has low credibility and esteem and is seen as a handmaiden of the military. Similarly, media has been severely chastised by the ISI and criticising the military is a cognisable offence.

Third, the ceasefire sought by Pakistan on the LoC this month, though broken twice, was seen as a small step in reducing violence without any end to infiltration. Fourth, the bonding between spymasters — Asad Durrani and Amar Dullat in their book Spy Chronicles: RAW, ISI and the Illusion of Peace — has got Durrani into trouble with the army. Both sides agreed that engagement between the two armies was essential and would require a creative dialogue architecture. Fifth, some thaw was read into a group of Indian journalists, which included a former Indian Army Colonel being invited to 7 Division Headquarters to Miranshah, North Waziristan, the erstwhile haven of the Taliban and the Haqqanis. This is unprecedented as even Pakistani journalists have not had access to the headquarters. 

Sixth, General Bajwa has said on various occasions that the way to peace and prosperity with Pakistan is through cooperation with India. This is reminiscent of Gen Musharraf’s advocacy of improving relations with India.

Seventh, Pakistan views China’s rising international status and BRI (especially CPEC) as a game changer. But there are sceptics in the Army who sought a presentation on CPEC in Army Headquarters where some senior officers equated China with the British East India Company. Some even accused China of cheating Pakistan. Overall, China is now more than an iron brother, sweeter than honey and more precious than eyes. It is a strategic ally to balance a disillusioned and distant US befriending India. Eighth, Pakistan has its own inventory of India-activated destabilisation of its fatherland, ranging from Balochistan to BJP leaders advocating the breakup of Pakistan into four parts. Ninth, Pakistan has become an issue in India’s domestic politics, especially during elections in UP, Gujarat and Bihar. Finally, India and Pakistan are the only two countries in the world without an exchange of tourist visas.

The elections in Pakistan will change nothing. Whoever becomes Prime Minister, the army will continue to call the shots and exercise power without responsibility and accountability. Nawaz Sharif once said ‘India should be grateful to Nehru for keeping the military under civilian control’. That thought was the only carry away from the conference. 

The author is convenor of |this India-Pakistan Track II. Views are personal.