BMC Elections 2017: BJP, Shiv Sena equals in Mumbai

A 14-week-long saffron war was fought in Central Europe several centuries ago to control shipments of the commodity believed to have great medicinal value. The city of Basel in Switzerland owes its prosperity in part to being the trading centre for saffron in those times. Almost 700 years later, a saffron political war was fought for the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC). At stake was an annual budget of over Rs 37,000 crore and the prosperity of Mumbai, India’s financial capital. While this no-holds-barred war between BJP and Shiv Sena has seen both parties share honours numbers-wise, the BJP has snatched a moral victory with a 150 per cent jump in its seats. The BMC elections should have a number of implications for state politics and give plenty of food for thought for all political parties. 

Politics is a tight-rope walk. One needs to protect long term interests while ensuring short term relevance. The BJP has achieved both goals in Maharashtra. Having single-handedly led the Corporation election campaign, Fadnavis is now the undisputed leader of Maharashtra. Fadnavis’ aggression and protective umbrella has brought the next generation of BJP leaders like the Mumbai city BJP chief Ashish Shelar to the forefront, providing the party a foundation and leadership for the next level of growth. The BJP and Shiv Sena together won 166 seats out of 227 ringing in the best saffron performance ever in the BMC election. But both sides are some distance away from the half-way mark. The prospect of Sena allying with the Congress to keep the Congress at bay is idle speculation. At their core, the Shiv Sainiks are anti-Congress, and perceive the BJP as a lesser evil. But this time the BJP will be an equal partner. For 20 years, the Sena has kept the Mayor’s position as well as Chairman’s post of the powerful Standing Committee to itself. However, the changed power position implies BJP will extract an equal share of power and hopefully translate its campaign on transparency into reality.

The Shiv Sena’s strength has always come from its ground presence in the Mumbai Metropolitan Region. It has ruled BMC for almost 20 years and has been almost unchallenged but for a brief foray by Raj Thackeray’s MNS. Most of its state ministers hail from Mumbai. But with the BJP matching Sena electorally, in the assembly and BMC polls, the Sena can no longer claim to be the big brother. Fadnavis has provided that lethal combination of a developmental agenda and a Marathi face to BJP, which has overwhelmed the Marathi identity politics of the Sena. It would probably take another election cycle to understand who the real “Mumbai ka Raja” is, but changing demographics and increasing BJP strength means Shiv Sena needs an urgent course correction (leadership as well as agenda-wise) to protect its turf in Mumbai and stay relevant in state politics.

The Congress’ tally in BMC at 31 seats is its worst ever performance. Over the past 25 years, the North Indian and Muslim vote has been the bulwark of Congress in Mumbai. However, the two communities are gradually drifting away from the Congress. The North Indian community increasingly sees BJP as a credible alternative even as the AIMIM and SP are offering a voice to the Muslim community. The infighting in the Mumbai Congress is a three-decade old problem. The multiple electoral setbacks haven’t spurred the Congress leadership to take remedial measures on this front. The Congress is not being seen as a contender in Mumbai at all and its condition in Mumbai is reflective of the party’s state across the country and there is little expectation of a change in the near future.

The run-up to the BMC election had seen unprecedented animosity between the BJP and Shiv Sena and there was much speculation about the fate of the state government. However, the state-wide results and the BMC election results in particular have left Uddhav Thackeray with little room for any adventurous manoeuvre. The rising graph of the BJP across the state and even in perceived Shiv Sena strongholds will make Sena leaders nervous and no one would want to risk a mid-term election. The Sena’s bargaining power within the State government will also reduce substantially. Fadnavis, in all probability, will be the first Chief Minister of Maharashtra after Vasantrao Naik to complete a full five-year term. 

The authors are professionals working in the Internet industry and passionate about electoral politics.