Assembly Elections 2016: How the results will affect Centre-state relations

After the triumph of the BJP in Assam, Trinamool Congress (TMC) in West Bengal, AIADMK in Tamil Nadu, most analysts have focused on a few key issues. Firstly, a lot of attention has been given to the increasing footprint of the BJP across the country. This is natural given not just the favourable verdict for the party in Assam, but the percentage of votes polled by the BJP alliance — which was nearly 50%. To a lesser extent  the first assembly win in Kerala for the party, along with an increased vote share (15 per cent) in the southern state has also naturally drawn attention of analysts.

The most important issue, ie, Centre-state relations in the aftermath of these results, has not been given the attention it deserves. Modi needs support of regional parties like TMC and AIADMK for passing bills — especially GST — in the Rajya Sabha. Even for the overall success of his policy programmes and attracting more FDI, Modi needs to work closely with CMs from non-BJP states. 

At the same time, with Modi firmly ensconced for another three years, the state governments too cannot afford to be combative, as a manageable relationship with the Centre is always advisable. Yet, given the BJP’s focus on expanding its footprint, and the national ambitions of Mamata Banerjee,  it is possible that relations between New Delhi and Kolkata could face some strains. The BJP on its part would try to build on its vote-share in the state (10.2%) so that it not only gets more seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, but also puts up a far better performance in the next assembly elections. The party’s co-in-charge in West Bengal, Siddharth Nath Singh, has already declared that BJP will go for broke in 2021. Both sides would be advised to be judicious. Modi needs to have a good rapport with non-BJP CMs not just for support in the Rajya Sabha on key policy issues, but also for ensuring the success of programmes he has initiated. Similarly, Mamata would be well advised to learn from Bihar CM Nitish Kumar’s blunder of focusing on the PM’s post. For becoming acceptable at the national level,  she actually needs to deliver the ‘Poribartan’ she promised in 2011. 

The West Bengal Chief Minister and other satraps fancying their chances for prime ministership would be well advised to wait till 2017. A formation led by any of the regional leaders needs either to be led by the Congress Party or supported by it. The period after 2017, when elections have been held in states like UP, Punjab and Uttarakhand, will indicate the trajectory of both the Congress and the BJP. If the BJP puts up a sterling performance in UP, and can break the stranglehold of the regional parties, it is certainly advantage BJP, and nothing can stop the BJP juggernaut in 2019. A non-BJP formation would certainly face an uphill task.

If one of the regional parties wins again in UP, and Congress can wrest Punjab from the Akalis, while retaining Uttarakhand, in this situation, a Bihar type ‘mahagathbandhan’ with Congress cannot be ruled out. Whether Congress will make some compromises, and which regional parties choose to join such an alliance will only be clear closer to the next general election.

While at this point it is advantage BJP in the national scenario, the situation could shift slightly in 2017. Till then, the BJP government at the Centre as well as in states would be advised to cooperate with each other, and not get into election mode just as yet. 

The author is a New Delhi based policy analyst