Afghanistan endgame carries the beginning of a new game

One would have thought that President Barack Obama’s announcement last week that set in motion the endgame in Afghanistan epitomised the age-old adage- all’s well that ends well. A far cry from it, the ground reality paints a precarious picture.

The killing of bin Laden deep inside Pakistan, combined with numerous more counterterrorism strikes, provided the US greater confidence and flexibility to reduce its troops in Afghanistan. Yet souring relations with Pakistan’s elite make it more urgent than ever that the US maintains sites outside the country to launch drone and commando raids against militant networks that flourish in Pakistan, and to safeguard Pakistan’s nuclear weapons from falling into terrorist hands. It is an irony that while Pakistan was America’s greatest ally in the war on terror launched after the September 11 attacks, the US now hopes to rely on Afghanistan’s help to deal with threats emanating from Pakistan.

Afghanistan is also becoming a litmus test of major power relationships in Asia. Even as America was considering withdrawal from the Afghan battlefield, Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani, attempted to instigate Afghan President Karzai by blaming the Americans for all problems facing both the countries. He urged Karzai to disallow long-term US military presence in his country and even suggested that Afghanistan should junk the US and follow Pakistan in cosying up to China.

Such an alignment would serve the interests of all of them. China perceives Pakistan as key to check India’s rise. Indeed, Pakistan is China’s only real friend in the world. The magnitude of this association has been underscored by statements of support for Pakistan from Beijing in the wake of Bin Laden’s death, and the subsequent visit of Gilani to China. China’s is also very interested in Afghanistan’s vast mineral resources. It has committed itself to the biggest commercial investment in Afghanistan — $3 billion in the Aynak copper mine. Further, extending its sphere of influence to Afghanistan would serve as another counterweight to India. China is a better partner for Pakistan and Afghanistan because as an aid donor, it has deep pockets and does not face the domestic fiscal problems of the United States.

More importantly it is not concerned about human rights and to a large extent supports Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities. For Afghanistan, dealing with Beijing would mean less pressure to arrest corruption, an issue that has been dogging the Karzai government. On the other hand, India views Afghanistan as a vital link to the natural gas reserves of Central Asia. This will be Afghanistan’s most important influence over India. In short, the war-strife nation’s emerging foreign policy is the new geo-political front-line that will define the balance of power equations in 21st century Asia.

There is no doubt that with the looming US withdrawal, China, Pakistan, India, Russia and Iran, have a critical role to play in Afghanistan. They all border Afghanistan or are in the near vicinity.

But Afghanistan is especially important for peace and progress in South Asia. It has for long been an amphitheatre for the rivalry between India and Pakistan. The games both countries indulge in will have a direct bearing on its political stability. An abrupt withdrawal by US forces is sure to lead to a civil war with disastrous consequences for the region. Compounding this is the issue of ethnic tensions between the pashtuns and non-pashtuns in Afghanistan.

It is implausible that the two rivals-Pakistan and India- will resolve their multifarious differences fully in the near future and stop viewing Afghanistan as a zero sum game. The rise of a pashtun Taliban government in Kabul will invariably break up the country and that will spell death-knell for Pakistan with its huge Pashtun areas likely to join the new Pashtunistan. However the idea advanced by a section of Indian foreign policy thinkers that India should use Afghanistan to disintegrate Pakistan is probably not very viable.

Given the potential anti-India sentiment of the Taliban, such a situation would hurt India’s interests too. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has for long romanticised Kabul as an important partner in facilitating regional economic integration. A peaceful and stable Afghanistan can go a long way in not only crating a regional economic bloc but also in helping control extremism in Pakistan. An ideal situation would be to give up narrow self-centred attitudes and develop a broader Afghan policy taking into account the entire South Asian community.

— Rohit Viswanath is a foreign policy expert employed with the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi