A stymied political career

A  great revolution is never the fault of the people, but of the government, the famous German writer JW von Goethe had said. Gurcharan Das, noted Indian author and former head of Proctor and Gamble India,  recently pointed out a problem that voters across India may face during the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. Disillusioned by a string of factors that form a major chunk of the entire election process, the voter in  2019 might be finally left with only a limited choice. While the NOTA  will be an option, the bigger mathematics is who shall rise to power after standard tenets of the median voter theorem are taken care of. As  April 11 nears, the question that haunts many citizens is whether the political entrepreneurship stymied and muted in our country.

To start with, the Election Commission of India (ECI) data suggests that currently there are 7 national parties in India. The eligibility to become one is to win at least 2%  seats in the Lok Sabha (LS), the upper house of the Indian Parliament. In addition, they have to win at least win four Lok Sabha seats. The national parties also have to get the recognition as a state party in at least four states.  While one can debate whether these cut-offs need a revisiting or if these restrictions are prohibitive, seven national parties for a country of 1.33 billion seem less. It immediately suggests that a market power is being exercised by the dominant ones rather than the ones on the fringes. What heightens the curiosity is that 1999, and also the last LS polls, saw the classification of a national party, namely the Nationalist Congress  Party. 

Since then, we have had 5 national elections and the story gradually turned to state parties. The ECI data suggests that there are  55 such parties today, with 14 new entrants from 2010 to 2019. Eight state parties entering in the 2000s, 10 in the 1990s, 7 in the 1980s, 5  in the 1970s, 3 in the 1960s, and 3 more post-Independence, the rest  pre-1947. 

And even without going into their survival probabilities,  one can see a competition from even the less-recognised bunch of regional parties. Clearly, as we get familiar with the Indian politics which is now highly decentralised, we see the national competition is being substituted by a sub-national flavour. 

Another point to take away from here is the potentially average conversion ratio of a state party to a national party, which is declining over the years.

So what explains the trend? The micro-foundations of entrepreneurship and pathways related to politics  as a career could provide a starting answer. There are no estimates, but one wonders if it has become costlier to pursue active politics as a  career opportunity.  In addition, the controversial and fuzzy electoral bonds are perfect instruments as entry barriers for incumbents. Also, with the 1991 liberalisation, India has seen the advent of market forces, such that the role of the state as a social planner has become more corrective in nature (when there are market distortions), rather than being directive. 

Yet, since puzzlingly  India’s crony capitalism and chaebol point to an unsteady system in existence where marginal returns to becoming a politician, potentially exists within one’s ethical compass on the edge. That may explain entry of criminals and contentious religious leaders, but successful entry from the average middle class remains a far cry. In fact, India’s  growing middle class, predominantly young and aspirations, may no longer be beholden to a behavioural mind set of thinking of the state as the go-to secure fallback for livelihood and even as an influencer of  life. They want to move on, and over the years, Infosys or the current  Flipkart-generation may prioritise the value of bazaars in guiding life’s satisfaction. 

Normatively this may be fine, but one wonders if this comes at the cost of turning the oblivious to inequalities that market forces are bringing forth and the negative externalities created tomorrow even in their private lives with their short-term thinking.  For those who are sensitive to these trade-offs, the way to solve India’s ills seem to be becoming agrarian entrepreneurs, embedding oneself in rural India, blending in innovation, technology and new business models to solve the ills afflicting life beyond metros.

One wishes that many of them, indeed, endogenously or exogenous, turn into political entrepreneurs and would advance governance and public policy in India. A final point can be drawn from Imran Khan, the current  Pakistani Prime Minister, interviewed last year on the Australian TV  programme for 60 minutes.  His was an observation that could be equally true for much of South Asia when he noted that maybe Pakistan needs a revolution. Today, with smart phones in their hand and aspirations in their mind, India’s youth may prioritize WhatsApp, malls,  Instagram. But if they have the foresight (even selfish ones for that matter are fine), they should also ponder taking their future in their hands.  From being amnesiac here, to the death anniversary of Bhagat  Singh last week was not exactly a great sign to this regard, but one would like to remain hopeful that tomorrow young India will still be inspired by him and that will spur political competition.

Speaking in recent months to prominent healthcare leaders and entrepreneurs in  India, former North American diplomats and faculty colleagues, this idea, as to whether India needs a revolution intriguingly keeps coming back in conversations. But to be substantive about it, it would be wiser to create conditions and incentives guiding Indian youth towards a  systematic approach here to foster revolution with national political rivalry. The emergence of a Jignesh Mevani, Alpesh Thakor, Hardik Patel,  Kanhaiya Kumar, Sheila Rashid or Shah Faesal is good regionally, but maybe India’s national parties need the animal spirits of competition to stay rooted to their broader social welfare mission. That could give  India its newest revolution (with political entrepreneurship), beyond its digital or fin-tech revolution.

The author is a professor, IIM-A