A new era in West Asia

After an intense 18 days of negotiation, six world powers and Iran finally managed to strike a historic deal earlier this week to curb Iran’s nuclear programme in exchange for billions of dollars in relief from international sanctions. The agreement will prevent Iran from producing enough material for a nuclear weapon for at least a decade while giving the international community access to Iranian facilities, including military sites, to ensure compliance. For Iran, the deal will give the country access to more than $100 billion in assets frozen overseas — money that critics fear will be used to step up Tehran’s support for its armed proxies in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and elsewhere. A key provision calls for the UN arms embargo on the country to stay in place for at least five more years, though it could end earlier if the International Atomic Energy Agency can certify that Iran has stopped all work on nuclear weapons. A UN restriction on the transfer of ballistic missile technology to Tehran is set to stay in place for up to eight more years.

The US negotiators believe the embargo — which prevents Iran from importing a range of military hardware, including warplanes and battle tanks — has done little to impede Iran’s ability to arm and equip its proxies throughout the region, including in Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq. On the other hand, the agreement mostly leaves in place the infrastructure that Tehran has built at its main nuclear sites, though much of it will be taken apart and placed in storage. Iran will also be allowed to continue enriching smaller amounts of lower-grade uranium and plutonium.

President Barack Obama has suggested that the deal “is not built on trust, it is built on verification,” while insisting that the US would reinstate sanctions — and potentially use force — if Iran cheated and continued work towards a nuclear weapon. Though Obama has made it clear that he would veto any attempt by the Republican-controlled Congress to scuttle the agreement, his administration will now have to sell the deal to sceptics in the US Congress and throughout West Asia, where both Israel and Gulf powers like Saudi Arabia believe the agreement will eventually allow for Iran to attain a bomb. The deal will likely set off a new round of weapon-purchasing by Gulf countries who have eyed the Iran talks warily. The Gulf States will now demand more from the US, including more expensive missile defence systems, more long-range radar units, and better command and control equipment to stitch the region’s various missile defence batteries into a networked whole.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, one of the biggest critics of the talks on the world stage, has described the deal as “a historic mistake for the world,” since “in every area where it was supposed to prevent Iran attaining nuclear arms capability, there were huge compromises.” Netanyahu had given a high-profile speech in the US Congress, lobbying against a potential deal earlier this year; now that one has been reached, he and Israel’s top diplomats are sure to do what they can to derail the deal or tighten its terms.

Iran has long been a litmus test that India has had to pass to satisfy American policymakers. New Delhi’s bond with Tehran has been termed variously by analysts as an “axis,” a “strategic partnership” and even an “alliance.”

This level of scrutiny has always been disproportionate to the reality of the relationship. When in the past India had to choose between Iran and the United States, it always sided with the latter. As the US itself now gravitates towards Iran, new diplomatic possibilities open up for India.

India has been recalibrating its Iran policy for some time now. New Delhi has signed an air-services agreement with Iran enhancing the number of flights between the two nations and allowing each other’s airlines to operate to additional destinations. The two sides have also inked a memorandum of understanding that is aimed at increasing bilateral trade to $30 billion from $15 billion. Plans are afoot for greater maritime cooperation, and Iran has already joined the Indian navy’s annual initiative, the Indian Ocean Naval Symposium, which provides a forum for the navies of the Indian Ocean littoral states to engage each other.

After years of dilly-dallying under the UPA government, the Modi government has decided to invest $85.21 million in developing the strategically important Chabahar port in Iran, allowing India to circumvent Pakistan and open up a route to landlocked Afghanistan. Iran’s Chabahar Port, located 72 kms west of Pakistan’s Gwadar port, holds immense strategic and economic significance for India. It is already connected to the city of Zaranj in Afghanistan’s south western province of Nimruz and can serve as India’s entry point to Afghanistan, Central Asia and beyond. Delhi and Tehran both view Chabahar as critical to developing connectivity with Kabul and as a geopolitical lever vis-à-vis Pakistan. This issue is one of high priority for the Modi government.

India has been trying to strike a balance between preserving its strategic interests and adhering to its global obligations. Its ability to manoeuvre in Tehran has been limited so far because of Iran’s inability to find a workable solution with the West on its atomic ambitions. As Shia-Sunni divide fractures West Asia and as American outreach to Iran begins to re-shape the strategic environment of West Asia, Indian diplomacy will be forced to navigate these tricky waters with diplomatic finesse. 

The certainties of the past with which New Delhi has lived so far are coming to an end and a new uncertain landscape will challenge Indian foreign policy in the coming years. New Delhi will have to move away from the ideological trappings of the past where domestic political imperatives continue to constrain India’s options. A thaw in US-Iran relations, heralded by the new nuclear understanding between the two, should alleviate some of Indian concerns and will allow it to push forth with a more purposeful regional engagement.

The author teaches at King’s College, London