Twenty Seventeen should have ended on a sweet note for the BJP with the party and its allies in power across the length and breadth of the country. Never before had India seen such a saffron surge drowning all opposition. Never before had India witnessed a similar electoral smash-and-grab if we discount the early decades after Independence when the Congress was the dominant and the sole pole of politics.

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From winning an estranged though natural ally back into the NDA fold to sweeping the polls in Uttar Pradesh to making inroads in the north-eastern states and retaining all held territory barring Punjab, the Modi Army was invincible. The popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi remained undiminished and the winning skills of BJP president Amit Shah remained unchallenged.

At the National Executive meeting in Bhubaneswar, Shah had unveiled his vision of India where the BJP would be in power from panchayat to Parliament. A casual look at all elections since then would confirm that it was not empty rhetoric. As 2017 draws to a close, we are closer to Shah realising his grand dream of one nation, one people, one leader. The BJP and its allies are now in power in 77 per cent of India with 68 per cent of the country’s population. The Congress remains vanquished.

Yet the triumphalism that we have seen among the BJP’s leaders and its rank and file in the closing days of the year could be misplaced. The year ended with the BJP winning a bitterly fought battle for Gujarat, Modi’s home turf, with a narrow margin, ceding space to the Congress and exposing its vulnerabilities. Homer celebrates the battle victories of Achilles; Statius tells the story of Achilles’s heel.

And so it is that 2017 ends on a less than perfect note for the BJP. Dissent is no longer limited to professional dissenters, as we are currently witnessing in Gujarat where a disgruntled deputy Chief Minister unhappy with the portfolios given to him has refused to take charge of office. This would be unthinkable earlier. Should we see this as the first of the red flags?

Not really. What the Gujarat election results have also brought to the fore is the masses have begun to question the claimed delivery of Modi Sarkar, especially on the economic front. The average Indian is not particularly bothered about GDP numbers or ease of doing business rankings, or for that matter demonetisation and GST. End of the day, what matters to the masses is food on the table and money in the pocket. Every election is transactional, though politicians love to believe it’s about ideology.

Three and a half years ago Modi stormed to power riding the soaring hopes and aspirations of millions of Indians, most of them young and tired of the corruption and chicanery that had come to define Congress rule. It was to end the atrophy that had set in, to liberate the potential of Indians, to make India a better country with greater opportunities than ever existed.

As Modi enters the penultimate year before he returns to the people to ask for a second term in office, those hopes and aspirations do not quite appear to have been met. Even if we were to set aside contested statistics and causative factors, the reality is not flattering for either Modi or the BJP. Jobs are disappearing at a rate far higher than at which they are being created. Agricultural disquiet is mounting at an alarming speed. Systemic changes that were expected in the bureaucracy have not happened. And investors are yet to begin investing their money in India.

It would almost seem that the noise and fury over demonetisation and GST have been manufactured to distract attention from issues that are far more politically debilitating than politicians would want to concede. Loan waivers have been showcased but they are not the solution to farmers’ angst. It does not seem there is an effort to understand and act on this front. Public spending on infrastructure projects could spur industrial revival and job creation. But here too, grand announcements do not match spending.

This year will witness the BJP seeking to retain Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan. The BJP will try to win in Karnataka and increase its footprint in the north-eastern states. It will also try and consolidate the slim gains in Jammu & Kashmir where a political solution eludes both Srinagar and New Delhi. The middle classes hope that the government will not entirely abandon them given the Finance Ministry’s disdain for taxpayers. It is debatable if corruption still agitates minds dulled by Modi Sarkar’s spectacular inaction in punishing the corrupt.

By December 31, 2018, we shall know who will win in the summer of 2019.

The author is a political commentator