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Will poaching hurt Congress in Saurashtra, North Gujarat?

BJP has damaged Cong where the later is the strongest

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Kunvarji Bavalia, now a state minister, when he joined BJP in July 2018
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Saurashtra and north Gujarat are two zones where Congress outvoted Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in 2017 state legislative Assembly polls and it is here that BJP leaders is trying to weaken it, by poaching its legislators. Of the four MLAs that have left Congress to join BJP, three are from Saurashtra and one from north Gujarat and another two, although have not left Congress, are campaigning for independents at the cost of Congress candidates.

While poaching BJP is also targeting Other Backward Class (OBC) politicians, which are the most populous among the voters. However, Congress feels that voters remain committed to the party and not to leaders so such exits do not matter. Political commentators said that Congress will definitely lose votes, but whether it will lose a seat is yet to be seen.

In 2017 elections to Gujarat Vidhan Sabha, Congress got 77 seats. It won 27 of 47 seats from Saurashtra and 17 of 32 seats from north Gujarat. Both the regions contributed 44 seats for the party. However, BJP poached Kunvarji Bavalia from Jasdan constituency in July 2018 and followed it up with Jawahar Chavda from Manavadar constituency, Vallabh Dharaviya from Jamnagar - Rural and Parsotam Sabariya from Dhrangadra, all from Saurashtra.

Similarly in north Gujarat, Unjha MLA Asha Patel had resigned earlier and joined BJP, while Vav MLA and Thakor Sena leader Alpesh Thakor has left Congress. While BJP and Thakor both have denied that Thakor is joining BJP, his exit will definitely hurt cause division of Thakor votes in north Gujarat, especially in Patan and Banaskantha. Dhavalsinh Zala of Bayad and Bharat Thakor of Bechraji, although have not made announcement of quitting Congress, are helping Alpesh and independent candidates to the detriment of Congress.

"Leaders come and go. People associate them with parties. In fact people do not like turncoats. Ramsinh Parmar, a Congressman of 40 years lost assembly polls. Shankarsinh Vaghela left Congress, Keshubhai Patel left BJP. Parties remained immune to such exits," said Jagdish Thakor, Congress' candidate from Patan, where Alpesh wanted a candidate of his choice. "The fact that Alpesh mentioned that he will not hurt Jagdishbhai is merely a smokescreen. He will cause division in Thakor votes. As a party, we are confident of winning Patan and Banaskantha seats," said a source in Congress on the condition of anonymity.

Former editor of Jansatta – Gujarati and editor of Nireekshak, Prakash N Shah said that such dissidents will definitely eat into votes but whether it will cost Congress seats is yet to be seen. "We need to recognize that there is lot of anger among voters against ruling establishment," said Shah.

Take A Peep

  • Saurashtra and north Gujarat are two zones where the Congress outvoted the Bharatiya Janata Party in 2017 state legislative Assembly polls
  • It is in these two zones that BJP leaders are trying to weaken the Congress party by poaching its legislators
  • Of 4 MLAs that have left Cong to join BJP, 3 are from Saurashtra and one from N Guj
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