Ahmedabad
People have hardly voted for a newly mushroomed party, even when it was led by a stalwart like Bhailalbhai Patel (Swatantra Party), or Chimanbhai Patel's first KLP or Janata Party
Updated : Nov 06, 2017, 07:20 AM IST
Election Commission data for Assembly elections from 1962 to 2012 shows an interesting trend — an average minimum of 33 per cent of the electorate pooled anti-establishment votes in Gujarat.
People have hardly voted for a newly mushroomed party, even when it was led by a stalwart like Bhailalbhai Patel (Swatantra Party), or Chimanbhai Patel's first KLP or Janata Party. The latest of attempt in 2012, Gujarat Parivartan Party led by former Chief Minister Keshubhai Patel, fetched just 3.63 per cent votes. Only when there has been a major swing or an anti establishment wave, is when the third front has come to power — once in 1975 and the second time in 1990.
What this data indicates is that any attempt to split anti-incumbency votes has not succeeded in the state. In 1962, some 11 parties contested the polls, but majority of the electorate voted either for the Congress, Swatantra Party, Praja Socialist Party or BJP, but not for the Hindu Mahasabha, Communist Party of India, Nutan Mahgujarat Janata Parishad or any other. The trend has continued.
In 1975, 10 parties contested the polls, in 1990, there were some 25 parties in the fray, 26 in 1995, 20 parties in 2002, 34 parties in 2012. The people voted for Congress or the main opposition party, be it Swatantra Party, Indian National Congress (O) (NCO) or BJP. For example, Janata Dal led by Chimanbhai Patel in 1990 fetched 29.36 per cent votes and 70 seats, but fared poorly in 1998 and got just 2.63 per cent votes.
Now that the BJP is ruling the state, voters have rejected AIRJP, GPP and even NCP. The Congress, which had hit the bottom in 1990 with just 30.74 per cent votes, is slowly recovering. In 2012, it's electoral share has increased by 8.19 and it scored 38.93 per cent votes.
year per cent
1962----33.52
1967----43.37
1972----34.56
1975----43.95
1980----36.95
1985----34.21
1990----56.05
1995----61.22
1998----47.44
year per cent
2002----39.45
2007----39.05
2012----43.51