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Gujarat Elections 2017: Satta bazaar bets big on BJP win

Following exit results, odds in BJP’s favour

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Even as the exit polls have predicted a sweeping win for the saffron party, the 'satta bazaar' in Gujarat has also put its money behind the Bharatiya Janata Party. The market, which predicted a close finish till the second phase of polling, has now increased the margin from 90 to 103-105 after the exit polls. As Congress president-elect Rahul Gandhi and Prime Minister Narendra Modi criss-crossed the state rallying votes, the market fluctuated, based on the sentiment of the masses.

Initially, the market had predicted a clear victory for BJP, but as the campaign progressed, the Congress started gaining momentum as a series of Rahul Gandhi rallies hit their mark. Closer to voting day, the margin between BJP and Congress reduced, but at the end of the second phase of polling, the odds again changed and the gap widened.

The bazaar had prized BJP at 70 paise, giving the ruling party about 90 seats till the second phase of polling. However, after the exit polls, the prize dropped to 25 paise, giving BJP seats in the range of 103-105.

In market parlance, it implies a bet of Rs 1 lakh before the exit polls would yield a return of Rs 70,000 on that lakh, but one after would only get Rs 25,000. This indicates a BJP victory is now more obvious.

While no such rate has been fixed for Congress, the market has reduced the tally to 66-68 seats after the exit polls, compared to 82-84 seats before.

The market is also bullish on BJP candidates compared to Congress candidates. In Rajkot-West constituency, the rating for Chief Minister Vijay Rupani has been pegged at 25 paise, lower than 40 paise for his Congress rival Indranil Rajguru. It means that betting for Rajguru is riskier when compared to Rupani. Similarly for Mehsana seat, rating for Nitin Patel is pegged at 35 paise compared to 50 paise for his Congress rival Jivabhai Patel. The 2017 elections have been the most closely contested in about two decades.

MONEY MATTERS

  • The bazaar had prized the BJP at 70 paise, giving the ruling party about 90 seats till the second phase of polling. However, after the exit polls, the prize dropped to 25 paise, giving BJP seats in the range of 103-105.
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