Ground report: Why the one who claims Saurashtra, Kutch, wins Gujarat

The battle for the 54 Assembly seats in Saurashtra and Kutch regions will have a significant bearing on the final outcome in the state polls. The Congress is looking for gains in the six seats in Kutch, with the BJP facing a stiff challenge to overcome anti-incumbency sentiments over issues such as complaints of shortage of water supply.

What could also work in favour of the Congress, which has traditionally relied on its KHAM formula – (Kshatriya, Harijan, Adivasi and Muslim)- is that it could get a major chunk of the Muslim votes in Kutch. Four of the six seats – Abdasa, Anjar, Mandvi and the district headquarters Bhuj -- have a sizeable population of Muslim voters.

In Bhuj, where Muslims account for around a third of the voters, Congress has once again opted for a Muslim candidate, Adam B Chaki. In the 2012 polls, the party fielded Amirali Hajihushen Lodhiya, who lost out by around 9,000 votes to BJP's Dr Nimaben Acharya.

Chaki, a known face in the area, has been in the news earlier for filing several PILs against the state government in the High Court. 

One such PIL had opposed the move by the state government to enter into an agreement with the Adani Group to run the GK General Hospital, a civil hospital in Bhuj, and a medical college that would be affiliated to it.

"There is massive resentment in Bhuj as there has been no developmental work in the past five years. The state of roads and drainage is extremely poor, and the biggest problem is shortage of drinking water supply. The Bhuj Bus Port is being developed in the city, and will only lead to further congestion. I have demanded that it be shifted. In 2006, Rs 21 crore was allocated for a new municipality office, as the one existing is 100 years old. Where did that money go? Moreover, the government hospital here is being handed over to a private player," said Chaki.

"There are around 1 lakh Muslim voters in Bhuj, and roughly around 3.5 lakh in Kutch. The mood of the Congress workers in Kutch is upbeat. We should be able to get five of the six seats in Kutch," he added.

Amid the flurry of activity in preparation for Prime Minister Narendra Modi's rally at Bhuj slated for November 27, MLA Nimaben Acharya's husband Dr Bhavesh Acharya, appeared confident that his wife would retain the seat.

Brushing aside the issue of anti-incumbency, he said, "It does not matter what development has taken place here in the past five years. Anti-incumbency is not really a factor here. The Congress' choice of candidate has ensured that the fight boils down to a question of votes cast along religious lines. It's unfortunate, but it's the truth."

"ln the 2012 election, the Patel community cast around 29,000 votes. These were Swaminarayan Patels who are staunch Hindus, and since there is no Patel candidate here this time, these votes will come to us. Nimaben will also get the 3,000-odd votes that went to the GPP (Gujarat Parivartan Party) candidate in 2012," he added.

On the streets of Bhuj and it's busy market areas though, a common refrain among locals is one about inadequate drinking water supply.

"We get drinking water only once in five days, and have to spend money calling for water from tankers. This time, the BJP will have a tough fight from the Congress, as Chaki is known here. Many fence sitters might want to give him a chance to solve their problems," said Dinesh Thakkar, a shopkeeper.

"While the government says it has brought Narmada water to Kutch, it seems this water is only meant for industrialists. Congress has a good chance this time, but it must not bank only on Muslims to vote for it. The income of many Muslims has risen sharply since Modi ji began the annual Rann Utsav and brought tourists to the area," said Vasant Joshi, a newspaper stall owner.

An autorickshaw driver, Ismael Qureshi, said, "It's 50-50 here between the BJP and the Congress. There has been no improvement at all in these five years. Look at the poor quality of roads, and there's a serious shortage in drinking water supply."