Gujarat: Cong’s community card vs BJP’s Modi-Shah ace

In 2014 Lok Sabha elections, Gujarati voters had strong feelings for then Chief Minister Narendra Modi, and with the BJP too harping on to Gujarati PM pitch, the results were for all to see: Congress failed to even open account in the state.

However, the same BJP failed to hit a century in the Assembly polls held in 2017, though Modi-Shah duo led the campaign from the front as the Assembly elections were happening in their home state. The wind in favour of Narendra Modi, however, had changed direction and voters had started to flocking towards leaders like Hardik Patel and Alpesh Thakor, who took up their communities’ cause and ran agitations, albeit the agendas were different. Both the leaders, directly or indirectly, helped Congress win 77 seats.

The story does not stop here. The Congress had to face many an embarrassment after the polls with some of its legislators defecting to the BJP. It was considered a masterstroke by party chief Amit Shah. He convinced Congress’ influential OBC leaders like Kunvarji Bavaliya and Javahar Chawda who became the ministers in CM Vijay Rupani’s cabinet. Thus, to an extent, BJP settled the score against the loss suffered in 2017 polls. This was also a strategy of BJP to recover the vote loss from the OBC community in the state.

The BJP in Gujarat swept all 26 seats in 2014 Lok Sabha polls, which could be attributed to Modi wave then. The situation is bit different this time as the BJP’s vote bank is now split on community lines though the party has been trying hard to keep the flock intact. In short, it will be the community card that will be at play this Lok Sabha polls.

Congress’ early start 

The opposition Congress is putting much focus on seats from the state as it is Modi-Shah turf. This could also be the reason for the party’s early launch of campaign in the state. The first ever rally after the announcement of elections was held in the state’s capital Gandhinagar. An entire array of Congress top brass, including party president Rahul Gandhi and general secretary Priyanka Gandhi addressed the voters in the state during this rally.

The Congress has been trying to appeal the voters on the issues like the agrarian crisis, farmers’ debt, unemployment, GST and demonetisation. These are the same issues that the party raised during Gujarat polls too and could help Congress fare better. However, the party was not able to form the government in the state as the urban voters remained with BJP.

BJP bid to repeat feat

The BJP leaders in Gujarat have been given the target of winning all 26 seats in Gujarat by their party top guns, but the state leaders have already earmarked five seats as weak ones. The BJP, therefore, is very cautious while selecting the candidates in these seats so as the party does not lose the score on a silly point. Amreli, Anand, Banaskantha, Junagadh and Patan are the seats where the agrarian crisis or community card will play a major role,  and the party is putting in extra efforts to retain these seats.

Defections before polls

The Congress faced a major jolt just before the Lok Sabha polls as five MLAs defected to BJP. The saffron party also tried to defect Alpesh Thakor and three of his colleagues in Assembly but things did not materialise. There is yet one more possibility that heavyweight OBC leader and Limbdi MLA Somabhai Koli Patel could switch his loyalty for Lok Sabha ticket from Surendranagar and BJP leaders are reportedly in contact with him. These defections can prove lethal on the morale of Congress cadre in the state.

‘Vikas’ mantra of BJP

The BJP has adopted the same agenda for the campaign in these polls and that is ‘Vikas’ (development). The party has been claiming to have succeeded in changing lives of the poor in last five years through many of the Central government schemes such as Ujjvala Yojana, Ujala, PM JAY, pension scheme, Kisan Sanman Nidhi, PM Fasal Bima Yojana, sanitation campaign and others. The party in Gujarat is also presenting a rosy picture before the voters by showcasing Modi government’s support to Gujarat by giving permission for fitting piers on Sardar Sarovar Dam in 15 days of taking charge at Centre, bullet train project, AIMS in Gujarat, international airports in Rajkot and Surat, metro rails in Ahmedabad and Surat, world’s tallest Statue of Unity and many others.

Community factor

Gujarat’s politics was dominated by the Patel community before the rise of Narendra Modi and the influence of the Patidar or Patels was more in BJP as they remained loyal to the party. However, Modi gave equal importance to OBC communities in the state by giving them equal representation in the party and his government. This was his strategy to weaken the base of Congress as OBC community was the vote bank for party in the state.

Patel community, however, showed a swing in the mood and their political tending remained with Congress under the influence of quota agitation by Hardik Patel. The BJP, however, has managed to regain the confidence of Patidar voters with the formula of announcement of Economically Backward Class(EBC) quota in government jobs and education announced by PM Narendra Modi, and EBC commission established by Gujarat government.

Two major OBC communities Koli in Saurashtra and South Gujarat and Thakor in North Gujarat are the key factors that will decide the fate of both the parties in the state. The community showers vote on the candidate who is one of them, and therefore the cherry-picking exercise in candidate selection for both parties will remain crucial.

Hardik, Alpesh & Jignesh

The community leaders like Hardik Patel, Alpesh Thakor and Jignesh Mevani are with the opposition Congress. It is likely that all three may be fielded too. Congress may play the trump card fielding all three to woo the voters from their communities. 

Internal feud in Cong

Those MLAs who left Congress recently and those who threatened to leave (like Alpesh Thakor) complained of  feud in Gujarat Congress. This is the issue that the party has been facing since it was out of the power. Many leaders and lesser workers are again a challenge and internal rift have divided the entire party into different factions. Congress’ loss in Gujarat is also because of the same reason and that would prevail in Lok Sabha polls again. The same could intensify once the candidate list is out, with those left out up in arms.

All is not well in BJP too

It is not like there is no voice of dissent in BJP. Many of the leaders felt let down after rebel Congress MLAs were made ministers within a few hours of joining BJP. These leaders expressed their feelings before the state leadership in different ways. These dissidents may throw a challenge to party during Lok Sabha polls but the value of self-discipline that their leader Narendra Modi has inculcated in them through different ways and that would not let them cross the party line.