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Did 25% Muslims vote for Narendra Modi in Gujarat?

Thursday, 22 August 2013 - 10:53am IST | Place: Ahmedabad | Agency: dna

Congress counters Narendra Modi's claim with booth-level figures; dares him to a debate on the topic.

Chief minister Narendra Modi’s claim that 20-25% Muslims voted for Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Gujarat has shaken the Congress. Retorting to his audacious claims, former Leader of Opposition Shaktisinh Gohil said in a statement on Wednesday that the CM was way off the mark on his facts.

Gohil asserted that not only have Muslims not voted for him, the BJP has consistently lost votes of secular Hindus in Gujarat since Modi has come to power.

“In 1990, when Congress won only 33 of the 182 seats of the Gujarat Assembly, it received 30% of its total vote share and Modi was not even on the scene in Gujarat politics. In 1995, Congress’s vote share was 32%. But in 2002, after Modi took over as CM, Congress bagged 38% vote share and 51 seats. In 2012, this vote share further increased to 40.5% and total seats to 61. Congress ally NCP also won two seats. So actually, Congress’s share has doubled since Modi’s arrival,” said Gohil.

An independent analysis based on statistics would reveal that in 2012 Assembly polls, BJP has indeed snatched a good few Muslim-dominated seats from Congress (Jamalpur-Khadia; new seat Vejalpur; Karjan; Vagra), but it must also be noted that this election was held for the first time after delimitation and Muslim votes have been divided.

They do not form the critical mass in any of these seats to give a make-or-break result to a particular candidate. Looking at the final outcome of the victory or loss of the party, one may be tempted to believe Modi’s claim but for a scientific understanding of community-wise voting pattern, only a close analysis of booth-wise break-up can give a fair understanding.

Realising this, Gohil therefore supplies booth-wise break-up of vote share in his statement — procured from Election Commission — of Vejalpur seat of Ahmedabad in which Asia’s largest Muslim ghetto of Juhapura votes. Some figures of other Muslim dominated booths like Jamalpur-Khadia, Behrampura area of Danilimda seat and Surat (east) tell a similar story.

Emulating Modi’s challenge to PM Manmohan Singh for an open debate, Gohil has also challenged Modi to an open debate on this subject and claims he can name any Muslim-dominated constituency whose booth-wise details can be procured from EC to prove that none of these booths has 20-25% votes in BJP’s favour.

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