Will the BJP hold on to Gujarat, a state that has been its citadel for over 20 years, or will the Congress create a huge upset by defeating the party in the home state of Prime Minister Narendra Modi? Who will the Patidars vote for? The answers to these questions and more, which have been on people's minds for the last few weeks, will be known in a few hours, when the counting of votes takes place.
Also, in Himachal Pradesh, which is a swing state, Congress and BJP have been alternating to power since 1985. The counting on Monday will make it clear whether the state will live up to its over three-decade-old trend of voting out the incumbent government or not.
The BJP has remained undefeated in Gujarat since 1995, having comfortably won five Assembly elections, including three when Modi was the chief minister. While exit polls have predicted another big victory for BJP, the Congress is also confident of ending its losing streak in the state.
Coming just a little more than a year before the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the outcome of the Gujarat elections could have far reaching consequences on national politics. A defeat or even a poor result in his home state could be a huge setback for Modi in his re-election bid, as an adverse result could break the aura of invincibility that surrounds him and his trusted aide and BJP chief, Amit Shah.
A lot is also riding on these results for Rahul Gandhi, who took over as Congress president just two days before the D-Day. Not surprisingly, both Modi and Gandhi campaigned extensively for the elections.
Modi addressed as many as 34 elections rallies across the state, targeting Congress for its "anti-Gujarat and anti-Gujarati" mindset. He also likened Rahul's elevation as Congress president to Aurangzeb Raj.
A low point in the campaign came when Congress leader Mani Shankar Aiyar used the word 'neech' to describe the PM. While Aiyar was suspended from the Congress, Modi used the word to launch a blistering attack on the party, accusing it of being anti-poor.
Rahul, on the other hand, kept up the attack on Modi over demonetisation, GST, and other issues. He also repeatedly targeted the PM for failing to talk about Gujarat's future and directing his energy at criticising the Congress. The Congress scion also drew a leaf out of the rival's book and visited several temples during his election yatras.
While the BJP seems to have banked more on candidate selection and its organisational strength, the Congress tried to woo youths as well as different communities by roping in the trio of Patidar reservation agitation — Hardik Patel, OBC leader Alpesh Thakor, and Dalit activist Jignesh Mevani. Thakor and Mevani are contesting the elections, while Hardik held several roadshows, urging the people to vote against the BJP.
The counting will start at 8 am for postal ballots and from 8.30 am for EVM votes at 37 counting centres, state's chief electoral officer BB Swain said. "Nearly 10,000 counting staff and 8,000 support staff will be engaged. Over 25,000 security personnel have been deployed at the counting centres," Swain said.
Meanwhile, in the 68-member Himachal Assembly, 35 is the majority mark. Congress' incumbent chief minister Virbhadra Singh is battling corruption cases, besides the usual anti-incumbency factor.
BJP, which had earlier decided to go to polls without a CM face, declared its veteran Prem Kumar Dhumal as its candidate. The CM's chair in Himachal Pradesh has been rotating between Virbhadra Singh and Dhumal for the last two decades.
GUJARAT IN NUMBERS
- A total of 1,828 candidates contested in Gujarat elections, which were held in two phases on December 9 and 14. The polls saw a 68.41 % turnout. Of the 4.35 crore eligible voters, a little less than 2.98 crore exercised their right to vote. The turnout was 3.5 % lower than the 72.02 % turnout recorded in the 2012 elections.
- The BJP fielded candidates on all 182 seats, while the Congress fielded on 176 seats, leaving five seats for Chhotu Vasava's Bhartiya Tribal Party. It did not field a candidate on the Vadgam (SC) seat and instead declared support for Jignesh Mevani.
KEY FACES BJP
- Chief Minister Vijay Rupani
- Deputy CM Nitin Patel
- Gujarat BJP chief Jitu Vaghani
CONGRESS
- Senior MLA Shaktisinh Gohil
- Senior leader Arjun Modhwadia
- Senior leader Siddharth Patel
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Coming just a little more than a year before the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the outcome of the Gujarat elections could have far reaching consequences on national politics. A defeat or even a poor result in his home state could be a huge setback for Modi in his re-election bid, as an adverse result could break the aura of invincibility that surrounds him and his trusted aide and BJP chief, Amit Shah.
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